Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI 
329 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Short term...today through Thursday. 


Upper ridge will try to keep it dry over central and eastern 
Wisconsin for one more day. Showers and thunderstorms over 
Minnesota early this morning should move across the Minnesota 
arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin but stay west of the forecast 
area as upper support lifts north into Canada later today. There 
will be some middle and high clouds across the western part of the 
forecast area but probably not enough to hold temperatures down 
very much. Southeast winds will keep cooler temperatures over the 
Lakeshore counties. All in all a nice day with low dew points and 
mild temperatures. 


Cold front now over the eastern Dakotas will not make much 
progress tonight as a wave lifts northeast along the front. 
Therefore showers and thunderstorms associated with the front 
should stay mainly in western Wisconsin. Lows tonight will be 
milder than the last few days due to clouds and a breeze. 


The cold front will move slowly east across Wisconsin Thursday. A 
strong low level jet preceding the front will produce gusty 
winds and unseasonably warm temperatures. The models are now 
slower with the movement of the front and generally keep the 
precipitation west of the Fox Valley until Thursday evening. 
Severe weather potential looks to be mostly damaging winds as 
model forecast soundings have 70+ knots in central Wisconsin by 
late afternoon. Lots of helicity but most looks to be below the 
storm bases. 


Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday. 
Main concern for this package will the risk of severe thunderstorms 
Thursday evening...and then thunderstorm chances over the Memorial 
Day weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the area. 


Impressive 120-125 knot jet streak expected to move across the 
area Thursday afternoon and evening. Also the models are showing 
a jet couplet to help aid in the lift as the cold front moves 
across the area. Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the 80s... 
modified soundings indicated 1000 to 1500 j/kg across central 
Wisconsin. Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to move into 
portions of north central and central Wisconsin during the evening. 
The storms should weaken as they move into Green Bay and the Fox cities 
as convective available potential energy diminish rapidly in this area of the state. Storm Prediction Center day2 outlook 
has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of an Iron Mountain to 
Wautoma line. Main threat will be damaging winds and large hail. 
Storm Prediction Center did note if dew points could rise a little more than expected... 
could not rule out a tornadic supercell. The severe threat should 
exist between 3 PM and 10 PM. 


Continued small chance of showers on Friday as weak boundary 
lingers across the far. Attention then turns to the Memorial Day 
weekend as the frontal boundary begins to shift northward Friday 
night. Some differences noted on how quick precipitation will return. 
Elevated convection expected to develop across the area late 
Friday night and then continue Saturday. Steep middle level lapse 
rates and some cool air near the surface supportive of some of the 
storms producing hail. 


The forecast for Saturday night into Memorial Day very muddled 
with the details. Latest European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Canadian model keeps the warm 
front across the forecast area during much of the Holiday weekend. 
The frontal boundary will be an area of focus for convection to 
form along the front. To complicate matters even more... 
Canadian/European model (ecmwf) indicated capping developing across the southern 
forecast area on Saturday and should continue into Sunday as 700mb 
temperatures warm to around +10c. Even if the cap does 
develop...low level jet increases again Saturday night into Sunday 
morning. 850/300mb thickness pattern would suggest that any 
complex of storms that does develop would turn east southeast 
across the northern portion of the forecast area. If warm front 
does push north Saturday...it could get shoved southward again by 
out flow boundaries. This leads to a great deal of uncertainty in 
where to place high chances for showers and storms Saturday night 
into Memorial Day. Will let later shifts sort out the details. 


As for temperatures...models continue to show very cool air on 
Saturday at the surface. If it stays cloudy and rains most of 
the day...temperatures may need to be lowered by several degrees. 
Temperatures Sunday and Memorial Day will be highly dependent on 
where surface warm front sets up. Could be some significant 
temperature busts if warm front clears the forecast area to the 
north...or stays just to the south of the area. 


High pressure will build into the region Tuesday. 
&& 


Aviation...VFR expected today and tonight. Winds may pose a 
threat to some aircraft as low level wind shear is expected this 
morning across central and northcentral Wisconsin and across the 
entire area tonight. South winds around 30kts at 1000 feet above ground level 
across central and northcentral Wisconsin this morning. Gusty 
south surface winds at 15 to 25 knots this afternoon. More 
significant low level wind shear possible tonight with 40 knot 
winds or greater at 1000 feet above ground level. 


&& 


Grb watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
Rdm/eckberg