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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 41 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
958 PM CDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Update... 


N0 major changes to the forecast. Have already seen 1-2 inches of 
precipitation across the middle sections of the Northland from the Brainerd 
lakes region up through Saint Louis County...and eastward to Pine 
County. For the most part the rainfall has been steady and 
moderate to locally heavy...which is allowing the ground to absorb 
the water effectively. No reports of significant flooding... 
although will begin to see notable rises in area rivers during the 
next couple days...with some locations possibly reaching flood 
stage. Will likely see the showers persist through tonight...with 
a slight shift eastward in the main band of heavier rain. Then by 
tomorrow morning...the next round of MDT/heavy showers and storms 
moves in from the south once again. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 631 PM CDT Wednesday may 23 2012/ 


Aviation.../0z taf issuance/ 


Slow moving frontal system over western Minnesota will be the 
focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening. Ceilings will 
occasionally drop to MVFR range with the thunderstorms. IFR 
ceilings at inl will linger for most of the night. Winds look to 
be light and variable with the front hung up in the area except in 
the stronger thunderstorm activity where winds will be gusty. MVFR 
ceilings will move into the terminals on Thursday morning with 
thunderstorms redeveloping over northwestern Wisconsin in the 
afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CDT Wednesday may 23 2012/ 


Short term...a very active short term is shaping up across the 
Northland over the next few days. Almost a perfect combination of 
events to lead to a heavy rain scenario. Flood Watch has been 
issued and there are a lot of things to talk about. 


At 330 PM...numerous thunderstorms were moving across the 
Northland. NESDIS has issued a satellite precipitation estimate 
discussing the potential for isolated 6 hour amounts of 2 to 2.5 
inches. Will need to watch closely for training storms... 
especially in the area outlined by NESDIS. Have been watching for 
possible severe thunderstorms...but so far there have only been a 
few storms close to producing severe hail. Will continue to 
monitor this evening for severe potential as well. 


A couple things will come together to produce excessive rainfall 
tonight through Thursday. A slow moving front will gradually 
settle over the central part of the County Warning Area...wavering back and forth 
a couple times. Abundant low level moisture...with precipitable 
water values on the order of 200-225 percent of normal will 
largely remain in place across much of the County Warning Area into Thursday. The 
slow moving front...with Gulf flow parallel to the front...and a 
favorable upper level jet structure...will lead to several bouts 
of extremely heavy rainfall. Was tough to place the actual Flood 
Watch...but most model guidance and HPC agree well on an area from 
Brainerd to Pine City...Grand Rapids...Duluth...Hibbing...Crane 
Lake and Ely. May need to make some small changes to the 
orientation of the watch but should be pretty close. The concern 
is for the potential of 3 or 4 inches of rain...and possibly more 
in localized spots. Rainfall of 4 inches could lead to wholesale 
flooding and sharp rises in rivers and streams into the weekend. 


Will continue with 100 percent probability of precipitation in the Flood Watch area 
tonight and Thursday...and then taper the precipitation chances 
off Thursday night and especially Friday. 


The other concern is severe potential tonight and also Thursday 
afternoon and evening. Storm Prediction Center has portions of NE Minnesota and far northwest WI in 
the 5 to 15 percent wind and hail corridor for this evening and 
still think there is a chance for severe storms this evening. We 
do think the chance of severe weather is even greater on Thursday 
afternoon and evening...across northwest WI. Storm Prediction Center has even discussed the 
possibility of issuing a moderate risk across that area...and the 
30 percent hatched area does include portions of our southeast County Warning Area. 
Instability is a bit lacking but there is extreme shear. 


Long term...[friday - tuesday] 


The Northland will be in cool westerly flow in the wake of the the 
low pressure system moving through eastern Ontario and into Quebec. 
The lower convective temperatures should result in at least partly 
sunny/cloudy skies from cumulus clouds. Leaned on the cooler 
guidance for temperatures...highs in the 50s and 60s. Beyond 
Friday...the concern becomes what is looking like another round of 
showers and storms for the weekend as a Central Plains low pressure 
system and its warm front lift into the upper Midwest. Some of the 
models...such as the Gem...are much faster at bringing precipitation to the 
Northland. Leaned on the slower guidance since the lifting low and 
warm front will need to battle the high pressure in 
Manitoba/Ontario. The Northland could get some decent rainfall from 
the showers and storms through the weekend. Strong to severe storms 
are possible Sunday across the Northland...especially the southern 
forecast area...when the warm front lifts into central Minnesota and northern 
Wisconsin. It then looks like cooler air will get wrapped into the 
forecast area into the middle of the week as the low pressure system moves to 
the east. There could be showers through at least the early part of 
the week. 


Hydrology...rivers and streams have had a bit of a easy Spring so 
far...and have generally been running quite low until recent 
rainfall. With the addition of 2 to 4 inches of new rainfall...and 
possibly more...we could see rapid rises in rivers and streams and 
also some overland flooding as well. Precipitable water values are 
on the order of 200 to 225 percent of normal for this time of 
year. We will continue to monitor for the need for possible 
warnings as the event unfolds. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 53 61 50 63 / 100 90 70 10 
inl 49 68 47 55 / 70 70 70 20 
brd 55 66 50 65 / 90 90 30 10 
hyr 59 73 52 69 / 70 90 60 10 
asx 58 72 52 67 / 70 90 80 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for mnz011-012-019-020-026- 
034>038. 


WI...none. 
Ls...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...tentinger