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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
1042 PM EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
upper air system slowly drifts by just to our southeast through 
Thursday. Warmer and drier air for the end of the week as high 
pressure builds surface and aloft. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
1030 PM update... 
forecast on track save to reduce precipitation chance to slight in the mountains 
only as last of showers in ecntrl Ohio vanish. 


730 PM update... 
forecast on track as convection fades as quickly as the sun can lower to 
the horizon...let alone set. 


Previous discussion... 
upper level low has turned north...currently located over eastern 
NC...and is expected to open up and accelerate to the northeast into 
Thursday. Convection currently firing across the WV mountains. 
Individual cells are drifting west off the ridges and 
weakening...while more cells develop back on the ridges. Expect this 
trend to continue...with more isolated/scattered convection moving 
into/forming over The Lowlands as outflow boundaries drift west into 
some areas of instability. Showers and storms should decrease in 
coverage and intensity later this evening as they lose daytime 
heating...with another round of diurnal showers and storms 
Thursday...mainly across higher terrain in eastern County Warning Area. Expecting 
another mild night tonight...with temperatures staying above normal. 
Thursday will be warmer than the last few days as southerly flow 
takes over...and more sunshine makes it through the clouds. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... 
models in very good agreement on a weakening cool front dropping 
into our northern areas later Friday...before lifting back north by 
Saturday morning as upper level ridging takes over. With heights 
already rising Friday...with some warming and drying aloft...expect 
showers with the front across the north to be very much on the 
scattered side. Temperatures will be on the rise Friday...well into the 80s. 


Upper level ridging becomes quite strong this weekend which will 
likely cap most potential diurnal convection. While we cannot rule 
out an isolated storm with elevated convection in the mountains...we 
chose to keep the weekend dry with such an impressive upper ridge 
over the area. On the other hand...850 mb temperatures surge...and 
with abundant sunshine...temperatures will rise to well above 
normal. Expect temperatures to crack 90 most low land places this 
weekend...but trimmed back a couple degrees from guidance due to 
lush vegetation. On the other hand...it will feel just a bit muggy 
at night with temperatures dropping only into the middle to upper 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
the upper level ridging will not last long as a strong western U.S. 
Upper trough shifts east and flattens the upper ridge. It appears 
the GFS may be showing a typical bias of breaking down the upper 
ridge too fast and is quicker with the front. Will go with the 
slower solutions...which brings the front in Tuesday. Expect 
showers and thunderstorms to accompany the front...with cooler 
temperatures into middle week. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/... 
VFR to start. Fog will form toward 06z and become dense in the 
valleys east of the Ohio River by 08z and then burn off 13-14z. MVFR 
to IFR low cloud are likely at bkw again. Once the fog and low 
cloud are gone...VFR Thursday until afternoon convection...which again 
will be east of the Ohio River. 


Surface flow will be none overnight and then light S Thursday. Light east flow 
aloft will become light S overnight and then light to moderate S Thursday 
afternoon. The NE to SW storm motion of Wednesday will become S to north for 
Thursday. 


Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Friday... 


Forecast confidence: low. 


Alternate scenarios: timing and density of fog could vary as can low 
ceilings in the mountains overnight into Thursday morning. 


Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency 
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information: 
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. 
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. 
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model. 


Date Thursday 05/24/12 
UTC 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 
EDT 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 
crw consistency h h h h M M l l l l l l 
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M h 
bkw consistency M M M M l l l l l l l h 
ekn consistency h h h h h l l l l l l h 
pkb consistency h h h h h M M M M M h h 
ckb consistency h h h h M M M l l l h h 


After 00z Friday... 
brief IFR possible in thunderstorms early Thursday evening...mainly 
in the WV mountains...and in dense valley fog Friday morning. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...trm/jmv/mz 
near term...trm/mz 
short term...jmv 
long term...26 
aviation...trm