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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
1256 am EDT Thursday may 24 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak upper level low will meander over the Middle Atlantic States 
and support the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
for the next couple of days. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
diurnal showers have dissipated. Low level moisture will remain 
very elevated through the night...particularly in the eastern half 
of the area. Patchy fog and stratus at least seems like a good 
bet...so it has been added to the forecast through morning. Fries 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/... 
the upper low center is finally prognosticated to drift northward on 
Thursday...and diurnally supported rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will again be possible. 


For Friday...models continue to evolve in depictions of strong 
shortwave progressing across the northern lakes. Latest 
deterministic model solutions indicate more dramatic southward penetration 
of the surface front...but GFS is generally consistent with earlier 
runs in driving the boundary toward the Interstate 80 corridor. 


Either way...outflow from convection over the lakes may plow into 
the destabilizing airmass over the upper Ohio Valley region during 
the afternoon/evening. Chance probability of precipitation...with slight numbers from i70 
southward were constructed for passage of this disturbance. Severe 
potential will depend on timing/development of instability 
levels...as deep layer shear value prognosis remains 
marginal...but has been on the increase. 


By Saturday...building ridge aloft will Herald diminishing precipitation 
chances and much warmer temperatures...with highs currently 
projected about 15 degrees above the seasonal normals. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/... 
temperatures ranging between 10 and 15 degrees above normal are 
expected for the remainder of the Holiday weekend with only isolated 
thunderstorms expected in the late afternoon and evening as an upper 
ridge holds over the region. By Tuesday...models show shortwave 
energy eroding the ridge with chances for scattered thunderstorms 
increasing from Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temperatures should 
moderate to just a few degrees above normal by Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
another tough forecast for the early morning hours, trying to 
determine where fog will form. Will use consistency from yesterday 
morning, as the overall atmosphere has changed very little. Will 
include MVFR fog at all ports, with the lowest restrictions, IFR, 
expected at the usual fog prone locations. 


Fog will diminish quickly Thursday morning. With an area of 
non-restrictive middle clouds expect to swing through the eastern 
ports. Again, will go with the development of cumulus during the late 
morning/early after hours. Surface winds will increase with gusts of 15 to 
20kts possible during the afternoon. 


Outlook...Thursday night through Monday... 
cumulus will diminish quickly after sunset, with MVFR and patchy IFR visible 
restrictions in fog possible at most ports during the early morning 
hours Friday and Saturday. A short wave trough will push a surface 
front across the Great Lakes late Friday and should generate 
scattered storms mainly north. 


Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm with localized 
restrictions cannot be ruled out, mostly VFR conditions will 
prevail across the terminals for the Holiday weekend as ridging 
aloft builds into the area. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$