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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 37 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 36 °
• T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 37 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 36 °
• Chance of Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana 
924 PM MDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Short term...valid for Thursday and Friday... 


Diurnally-driven shower activity is winding down as of 03 UTC with 
the onset of cooling in the boundary layer. Low probability of precipitation remain across 
the plains until 06 UTC though because residual convective showers 
could persist for a while after sunset in cyclonic flow aloft. The 
00 UTC hrrr seems too aggressive with its shower coverage after 06 
UTC though given radar trends...so we stayed the course with a dry 
forecast for most of the plains overnight. Note...however...that a 
modest area of 500-300 hpa q-vector convergence across southern Montana 
and northern Wyoming as shown by the 00 UTC NAM and 18 UTC GFS is cause 
for lingering probability of precipitation all night in those areas. That forcing could be 
part of the reason for the precipitation around Sheridan already. 


Our going forecast for tonight handles most of these ideas well... 
so only minor changes were required. The focus during the next few 
days will certainly be on the potential storm...which should bring 
significant precipitation to the area. The 18 UTC GFS and NAM from 
00 UTC still both support this notion...and the Winter Storm Watch 
that starts Thursday evening for the mountains and foothills over south 
central Montana looks on track. Schultz 


Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed... 


Made a few changes to the extended period today...mainly with 
regard to temperatures. Models remain in somewhat poor agreement on 
specifics of system tracking through the region and what follows. 
Have generally maintained inherited probability of precipitation...with nod toward warm 
air into the east Saturday. 


Saturday morning still looks relatively active as upper low 
proceeds north and eastward...but models quickly begin to 
diverge. The GFS moves the low much more quickly eastward into 
northwestern ND by Sunday night...meanwhile the ec takes more 
northerly tack to start...moving into north central Montana in 
the same time frame. The low does not reach northwestern ND until 
Monday afternoon. Due to more westerly location of the low...it 
also appears that some warmer air will be drawn up into eastern 
zones. Exact extent of warm air intrusion is still 
uncertain...but have raised highs slightly in the east. This air 
also looks a bit drier...so have tapered probability of precipitation off a bit in the 
east for Saturday. The upper low transitions out of the region 
through Sunday...timing and track are again issues. As low lifts 
out of the region we should get another shot of cold air...and 
some wrap around precipitation...so have kept going probability of precipitation in place. 
Either way...the location and movement...or lack thereof...of the 
upper level high pressure ridge over the southeastern Continental U.S. Will 
decide motion and timing of the upper level low. 
Models have come back into some degree of agreement Monday...as 
ridging redevelops... with dry northwest flow over the forecast 
area. Have kept slight probability of precipitation in place at this time...based on 
potential airmass type showers...but should generally see drying 
conditions and start to warming trend. Next shortwave trough swings 
across the area Tuesday...bringing some potential for more shower 
activity. Due to timing of the wave...this will limit warmup in 
western zones...from kbil west...but eastern areas should still 
see temperatures approaching 70. Ridging quickly begins building back 
into the region overnight Tuesday...resulting in much warmer 
temperatures. Have raised highs significantly for Wednesday. Aag 




&& 


Aviation... 


Widely scattered showers will occur over the region through 06z... 
with scattered showers over the kshr area. Localized MVFR 
conditions will be possible in any heavier showers. VFR 
conditions will prevail after 06z. However...scattered showers 
will continue around kshr with possible MVFR conditions. Expect 
areas of mountain obscuration through the night. Chances for 
showers will increase over the area on Thursday. A few afternoon 
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Localized MVFR conditions 
will be possible with the precipitation. Mountain obscuration will 
increase through the day. Arthur 




&& 


Preliminary point temp/pops... 


Thursday Friday Sat sun Monday Tuesday Wednesday 
----------------------------------------------------------- 
bil 042/058 038/049 039/050 037/052 037/063 044/062 044/069 
24/T 36/west 87/r 65/west 22/T 22/west 32/west 
lvm 034/053 032/042 032/046 030/050 033/059 036/059 036/071 
34/T 68/west 87/r 75/west 23/T 33/west 32/west 
hdn 041/060 037/054 044/061 037/054 037/065 044/063 044/072 
24/T 36/west 75/r 64/west 32/T 22/west 32/west 
mls 044/061 037/057 044/062 040/056 040/062 043/064 044/070 
24/T 24/west 75/r 65/west 22/T 23/west 32/west 
4bq 042/060 037/057 046/067 039/061 040/064 043/068 044/069 
23/T 24/west 65/r 53/west 22/T 22/west 32/west 
bhk 040/062 034/057 045/057 040/061 039/061 041/065 045/065 
24/T 23/west 75/r 54/west 22/T 23/west 33/west 
shr 038/056 035/049 039/064 036/058 035/062 039/067 040/069 
43/T 36/T 65/r 64/west 22/T 22/west 32/west 


&& 


Byz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday evening through 
late Saturday night for zones 56-66>68. 
Wyoming...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Billings