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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Rain Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
746 am chst Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis...light to gentle trade-winds and only a few small 
showers prevailed over the marianas this morning. Little change 
through the forecast with relatively light east winds and isolated 
showers expected. 


&& 


Discussion... 
the axis of the sub-tropical ridge is located near pagan this 
morning. The proximity of the ridge will keep winds light across 
the marianas today. Models keep dry weather over the area and 
current observations agree...so extended slight chance of showers 
through today. No organized weather patterns predicted to affect 
the marianas through the remainder of the forecast. Only isolated 
showers are expected through the forecast. 


Winds increase slightly tonight and remain that way until 
Wednesday night. On Thursday winds become light again. 


&& 


Marine... 
an east trade-wind swell will persist through the forecast. Surf 
on east facing reefs will be 4 to 6 feet the next few days. The 
period of the swell will remain below 10 seconds through the 
forecast. The rip current risk will remain low through the 
forecast. Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet tonight will persist 
through the forecast. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
only spotty convection is seen across the region this morning 
other than widespread middle and upper level clouds. Models show 
spotty convection remaining today near Kosrae and Pohnpei...but 
mainly to the southwest of both locations. Decided to leave a 
slight chance of thunderstorms at both locations with fairer 
weather setting up overnight. For Majuro...models still show 
showers and thunderstorms near the date line. This weather will 
start spreading westward towards Majuro tonight. For the long 
term...GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a fragmented inter-tropical convergence zone...mainly south of 
Majuro and Pohnpei. Short term adjustments in the coming days may 
trend drier or wetter depending on exact location of the 
convergence zone and how well it establishes itself. 
Otherwise...no major weather features are expected through 
Saturday. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
surface troughs are generating showers and thunderstorms across 
Palau to southwest of Yap...and southwest of Chuuk. Satellite 
imagery suggests weather will gradually clear out at Chuuk...but 
forecast maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms there today 
due to proximity to the weather this morning. At Koror...only 
isolated coverage is expected there as the weather moves west. 
Based on model guidance of expected winds...island thunderstorms 
can be ruled out in the short term. However...GFS particularly 
shows very light to calm winds later in the week across Yap and 
Palau. Other models are not quite as aggressive with this 
scenario. If this pattern is consistently in the model runs this 
week...then island thunder could be a greater possibility. 
Weather at Chuuk will continue westward but spotty convection 
will follow from the east with a pattern similar to Pohnpei. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ziobro/M. Aydlett