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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
724 am chst Monday Feb 13 2012 


Synopsis... 
a trade-wind disturbance and associated inverted surface trough 
were centered east of the marianas along 150e. Most of the 
cloudiness associated with the disturbance was located on the 
east side of the surface trough. However...since forecast 
issuance time...an area of stratocumulus and isolated light 
showers has developed on the west side of the disturbance. This 
area has begun moving into the forecast zones. 


&& 


Discussion... 
no major changes to forecast reasoning. Trimmed back onset of 
isolated showers to later this afternoon and start of scattered 
showers to around midnight based upon satellite imagery observed 
during the first half of the shift. Otherwise...no major changes. 
Best time for scattered showers will be late tonight and Tuesday 
morning. Satellite imagery and near term model guidance still 
suggest changes in the structure of this disturbance could 
require tailoring of the forecast to remove or add portions of 
the forecast domain from scattered shower coverage. Day shift 
will need to closely monitor radar and satellite imagery. Next 
trade- wind disturbance is still expected to move through on 
Thursday. 


&& 


Marine... 
story remains the same. Wave watch model continues to initialize 
too high. Reduced trade-wind swell to 6 feet today based upon 
ipan buoy observations. Latest ascat analysis shows sustained 
winds in the 20 knot range over the marine zones. Still expect 
lull in wind speeds as the inverted surface trough passes through 
later this afternoon and tonight. Day shift should be able to 
drop the Small Craft Advisory on schedule. Winds and seas will 
increase once again as the trade-wind surge on the back side of 
the disturbance arrives. A more robust Small Craft Advisory for 
winds and seas will be needed on Tuesday. A minimal high surf 
advisory may be required on Tuesday as well. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
ascat shows weaker winds associated with a trade-wind surge over 
the Marshall Islands this morning. A few showers are seen in the 
kwajalein radar imagery and also on infrared satellite. Models are in 
general agreement on drying these showers out today with dry 
conditions remaining in place over Kosrae and Pohnpei through 
midweek. Ascat shows stronger winds south of Hawaii that will 
propagate into the region by Tuesday night. Kosrae and Pohnpei 
could see some showers by the end of the week. An area of 
enhanced trade-wind convergence should develop near Kosrae by 
Thursday. 


Altimetry shows combined seas northeast of the Marshalls have 
dropped by 1 to 3 feet since yesterday. Therefore...the high surf 
advisory has been dropped for Majuro. Trade-wind swell and wind 
waves continue to produce hazardous surf on Kosrae though. 
Stronger winds will develop east of Majuro by Tuesday and 
combined seas will will increase in the Majuro marine zone by 1 
to 2 feet. Another high surf advisory will be needed for Majuro 
on Tuesday. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
a convectively active surface trough and embedded circulation 
south of Yap headline the weather in western micronesia this 
morning. Deep convection has persisted all night near Yap...but 
is holding back just east of Koror. Models indicate showers will 
continue over Yap through tomorrow before sliding westward and 
passing just north of Koror. However...active convection has been 
lurking just east of Koror much of the morning. If the trough 
moves toward the west more rapidly than expected...Koror could 
see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive today. 
Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible on Yap 
through Tuesday...and through Wednesday on Koror. Clouds on the 
backside of this feature continue to pull away from Chuuk...which 
will see somewhat drier weather for much of the week. 


Wave watch model indicates fairly high combined seas near Yap and 
Koror this morning. However...altimetry shows combined seas to be 
a few feet below initial model output. Surf will remain below 
hazardous levels on both locations through the week. Chuuk could 
see hazardous surf by midweek as stronger trades build in. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 6 PM chst 
this evening for pmz151>154. 


&& 


$$ 


McElroy/M. Aydlett