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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 77 °
• Rain Showers

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 77 °
• Rain Showers

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 77 °
• Rain Showers

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 81 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 81 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
402 PM chst Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
a surface trough north of the marianas continues to generate a 
SW-NE oriented band of showers and possible thunderstorms across 
the far northern marianas islands. Farther south...satellite 
imagery shows very dry conditions across Guam and the cnmi with 
virtually no clouds observed. 


&& 


Discussion... 
shower activity associated with the surface trough north the cnmi 
will progress westward and will not affect the marianas region. 
Gentle trade winds and isolated showers are expected to continue 
through at least early next week as models show a persistent quiet 
weather pattern dominating a large part of the western Pacific 
north of 10n. Models hint at increasing moisture from the 
southeast by later next week. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
a series of weak surface troughs are embedded within the zone of 
trade-wind convection spanning eastern micronesia. Biggest change to 
the forecast package involved the first period forecast for Majuro. 
A weak surface trough just to the west of Majuro is serving to focus 
convection near and east of Majuro. GFS best captures this setup so 
went with the GFS solution and added scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms to first period forecast for Majuro. AWIPS distance 
speed tool indicated convective boundaries moving westward at 
around 15 knots between Kosrae and Pohnpei...so increased winds first 
two periods for these locations. Otherwise...forecast closely 
follows persistence. Model guidance consensus calls for band of 
trade-wind convection to diminish as the trade-wind surge crosses 
into western micronesia early next week. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
synoptic setup involves not very much to write home about. Deep- 
layer ridging remains in control. A very weak inverted surface 
trough is passing south of Yap. A near-equatorial trough lies well 
to the west of Koror near mindanao. Model solutions suggest a 
trade-wind surge will bring more unsettled conditions to Chuuk on 
Sunday. A period of scattered showers will be possible for Chuuk 
from Monday until at least Wednesday. Surge Peters out as it 
translates westward toward Yap and Koror as ridging remains in 
control. GFS hints at a weak near-equatorial trough forming near 
Koror and to the south of Yap by the middle of next week. Will 
maintain a dry bias for these forecast points unless later model 
solutions converge toward this new forecast scenario. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Williams/McElroy