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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 73 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 73 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of Rain

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 75 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 75 °
• Mostly Cloudy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
359 PM CHST WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH NW AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS IS SETTING OFF
BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS
NORTH OF SAIPAN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE SEEN ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE DISTURBANCE IN THE CHUUK
AND POHNPEI AREA APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A WEAKENING PHASE
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE CHUUK/POHNPEI
DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE MARIANAS...KEEPING NEARLY ALL THE
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS THU-FRI. BEYOND THAT...NO REAL
CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS. STARTING MONDAY...GFS SHOWS A BROAD BUT WEAK CIRCULATION
TRYING TO GET GOING EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 15N AND 155E. HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE WEST AND BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS WELL. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW AND IF THIS MAY DEVELOP...SO KEEPING SHOWERS ISOLATED
FOR NOW. 

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 4-6 FT SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WAVE
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. RIP RISK COULD FALL
TO LOW BY SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR CHUUK EASTWARD 
TO THE DATE LINE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION 
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURVING TO THE EAST- 
SOUTHEAST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST. CONVERGENCE FROM STRONGER TRADE WINDS 
EAST OF THE MARSHALLS IS FUELING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 
MARSHALLS WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION FARTHER WEST IS FOUND 
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BECAUSE 
MODELS HANDLE THESE FEATURES DIFFERENTLY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE 
IN EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER...MODELS DO GRADUALLY LIFT CONVECTION 
NORTHWARD BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD 
INTO ALL THREE LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD TO CHUUK FROM THE EAST AND AN ACTIVE WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE TROUGH LIFTS 
TO THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION TO 
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BUT OPEN IT BACK INTO A TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK.
SLIGHTLY QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN NEAR YAP AND KOROR REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY WITH WEAK SHALLOW
RIDGING FOUND SOUTHWEST OF KOROR AND A TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR YAP. A LITTLE SURGE OF WEST WINDS SOUTHWEST OF KOROR WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA AND COULD CAUSE
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SWING AROUND TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST. A TUTT DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD JUST NORTH
OF YAP AND KOROR MAY HELP MAINTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND/OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW A MORE BENIGN SOUTHEAST FLOW
SETTING UP BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT