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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 335 PM chst Tuesday Feb 9 2016 Synopsis... after the latest in a series of weak trade-wind disturbances passed through the marianas this morning...skies are clearing with only isolated light showers left. Moderate to fresh winds persist over the marianas waters...along with 6-8 feet seas. && Discussion... the overall forecast is basically unchanged...but adjusted sky cover by going back to partly cloudy for Wednesday-Thursday and making Friday through Saturday mostly cloudy. A combination of the shear line coming down from the north and trade-wind showers coming in from the east should result in deeper moisture...but still only isolated showers. No changes to winds...which should ramp up for Friday and the weekend as a shear line drops down into the area. && Marine... marine grids were left the same...as models show no change to the forecast of winds becoming fresh to strong Thursday night through Saturday...with seas rising over 10 feet by Friday. && Fire weather... with little rain expected...kbdi at 704 and winds due to increase by Friday... may need a Fire Weather Watch Wednesday or Thursday...and may have red flag conditions this weekend. && Eastern micronesia... very dry conditions and fresh trade winds persist across the region. Winds will decrease just a slight bit more over the next couple of days...but will strengthen again over the weekend as high pressure near Taiwan moves eastward along 20n. Models show a better chance of showers late in the week as trade-wind convergence shifts northward toward Majuro and Kosrae. Ascat shows 20 to 25 knots winds across the Marshalls and north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. Altimetry shows that seas have decreased some near Kosrae and Pohnpei but remain around 10 feet near the Marshalls. Winds will remain hazardous for small craft through Wednesday but seas will remain hazardous for at least the next few days. Trade- wind swell may decrease just enough so that surf may fall below hazardous levels at Majuro Wednesday...but surf will remain hazardous at Kosrae for another couple of days. In the long range...increased winds and swells will bring another round of hazardous surf and sea conditions to the region. && Western micronesia... a few showers are leaving the vicinity of Koror as a surface trough heads west while a few more showers are seen east of Yap and north of Chuuk near a small trade-wind disturbance. This weak disturbance will bring a few more clouds to Yap Wednesday but a large increase in moisture is not expected at this time. Generally dry conditions are expected at all 3 locations through the weekend. Winds will increase over the next several days at Yap and Koror as high pressure moves eastward from China. Combined seas will increase as well as surf along north facing shores...and may reach hazardous levels Thursday or Friday. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ Middlebrooke/W. Aydlett