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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 556 PM chst Friday Jul 31 2015 Synopsis...light north winds and isolated showers prevail across the marianas this afternoon. Winds and showers will increase by Sunday as Tropical Storm Soudelor approaches the Mariana islands && Discussion... left forecast as is for now. Expect light northeast winds tonight becoming north on Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Soudelor is expected to pass to the north of Saipan Sunday night or early Monday morning. Winds across the local area will become more westerly by Sunday night as Soudelor passes to the north. Monsoon showers south of Soudelor will increase across the marianas with scattered showers Sunday expected over Guam and Rota with numerous showers over Tinian and Saipan. As Soudelor moves away from the marianas Monday deep layer monsoon moisture will remain. This will keep showers scattered across the local area through at least Wednesday. && Marine... buoy data shows seas are around 2 to 3 feet. Expect seas and swell to increase by Sunday afternoon as Soudelor approaches the marianas. Seas and surf will be higher across Tinian and Saipan especially Sunday night and Monday. Soudelor is predicted to be a strong typhoon after it passes through the marianas. The typhoon will push swells towards the marianas and will produce higher surf along north and west facing reefs next week. At this time surf is predicted to become hazardous only over Tinian and Saipan. If Soudelor either becomes strong...moves closer or lingers longer than expected than sea and surf could be different. && Tropical systems... Tropical Storm Soudelor was located about 880 miles to the east of Guam this afternoon. It is moving in the direction of the marianas and is predicted to be near pagan and alamagan Sunday night or Monday morning. Soudelor is predicted to become a typhoon sometime on Saturday afternoon. It is also expected to be a typhoon as it passes through the marianas. If it does track across the northern cnmi the strongest winds will remain north of Saipan. Tropical storm force winds may occur across Tinian and Saipan and associated coastal waters Sunday night and Monday. As with any tropical system the track and intensity may change bringing strong winds further south. && Eastern micronesia... Tropical Storm Soudelor is 450 miles north-northwest of Pohnpei and 560 miles northeast of Chuuk...moving westward. Ascat wind analysis shows another circulation southeast of Majuro at about 3n173e with moderate to fresh west winds from Chuuk state toward the circulation southeast of Majuro. Most models indicate the moist monsoon flow will persist across eastern micronesia for the next few days with showery weather at Chuuk...Pohnpei and Kosrae. The circulation near Majuro will need to be watched for further developments. Improving weather is expected at Majuro by late Saturday with a slightly drier pattern developing by then. Westerly winds will cause significant swell and wind waves along the west coasts of micronesia. The ww3 model and altimetry data indicate short-period waves will be up to 5 or 6 feet across the area in the coming days. If the west swell builds up to around 7 feet...then high surf advisories may be needed. && Western micronesia... Chuuk discussion is included above with eastern micronesia due to a similar synoptic pattern. A monsoon trough stretches eastward from 10n130e across Yap state to 9n143e then curves northeastward into Tropical Storm Soudelor at about 14n157e. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist across the Republic of Palau between 4n and 8n from 130e to 141e while some showers are edging toward Yap. This general pattern is expected to continue until ts Soudelor moves to near the Mariana islands by late Sunday...and by then the west monsoon winds and showers are likely to increase for both Yap and Koror. Seas will respond to the westerly winds with combined seas building across Palau and Yap this weekend. The west surf in particular could become hazardous by Tuesday or Wednesday. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ Ziobro/Simpson