Updated: 7:00 PM ChST on November 01, 2014
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 353 PM chst sun Dec 21 2014 Marianas synopsis... fresh to strong trade winds and isolated light showers are present across the marianas and for several hundred miles upstream to the east. Seas of 9 to 10 feet are indicated at the ritidian and ipan buoys. && Discussion... refreshed the wind grids from the latest guidance...but no large changes to the forecasts resulted. Fresh to strong winds will drop off slightly Monday and Monday night...then ramp back up Tuesday and Wednesday with breezy conditions returning. Showers will be isolated the next few days...with the best chance of a shower late tonight and again Tuesday and Tuesday night. && Marine/surf... as mentioned above...winds will drop a bit Monday and Monday night...then become fresh to strong again for Tue-thur. But combined seas will remain at 9 to 11 feet or so...with some 12-foot seas likely in the eastern waters Tuesday night into Thursday. Therefore... have extended the Small Craft Advisory through Thursday night. The high surf advisory for north facing reefs is now history...but a new advisory is likely by Wednesday along east facing reefs as renewed trade-wind swell reaches 9 feet or more. && Eastern micronesia... moderate to fresh trade winds are expected to continue over the region through the end of the week. Fair weather has returned to Pohnpei this afternoon and is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A weak trade-wind disturbance over the Marshalls is slowly progressing westward and is expected to bring increasing convection to Majuro late tonight. This system will move westward bringing unstable conditions to Kosrae and Pohnpei Monday with scattered showers expected at Kosrae a little later than the previous forecast. Once this disturbance and the converging winds behind it clear out of the region...fair conditions are expected to return to Majuro Tuesday and to Kosrae and Pohnpei by Thursday. Latest altimetry and wave models indicate large east-northeast trade-wind swell will continue to build over the entire region. This will maintain sea heights at levels that are hazardous to small craft at Pohnpei and Majuro through the week. Seas are expected to increase to hazardous levels for Kosrae Monday morning. Hazardous surf of 7 to 9 feet is already present at Kosrae and is expected to continue to build through the next day or two...reaching levels of 8 to 11 feet by Tuesday. As the seas continue to build over the region...hazardous surf conditions are likely at Majuro Monday and Pohnpei Tuesday. These conditions will coincide with the Spring high tides at Majuro making coastal inundation likely across Majuro and nearby atolls. Residents on all the mentioned locations need to stay alert to the latest advisories issued by the National Weather Service and instructions from their local emergency management offices. && Western micronesia... a band of convergence over Chuuk is maintaining isolated showers over weno this afternoon. As the band continues to drift westward...expect fair weather to return to Chuuk for the beginning of the week. A trade-wind disturbance will approach Chuuk from eastern micronesia on Tuesday...bringing wet conditions back to the state for a couple of days. As this disturbance moves on to the west...fair weather will return to Chuuk for the end of the week. Trade-wind convergence is generating scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of Koror and east of Yap this afternoon. This band of convergence and associated showers will continue to drift westward through Monday night...but will remain close enough to both locations to keep a slight chance of thunder in the forecasts. Fair conditions are expected to push in from Chuuk by Tuesday and continue for a couple of days. For the last half of the week...a trade-wind disturbance is expected to move in from Chuuk to bring another round of unsettled weather to both Yap and Koror. Maintained the forecast for isolated showers for now...but if conditions develop as predicted by the models...scattered showers are a possibility. Building trade-wind swell and wind waves has caused sea heights to reach hazardous levels for small craft operation across Chuuk. Seas are expected to continue to build over the next couple of days and could produce hazardous surf conditions at Chuuk by Tuesday. Although seas have subsided a bit at Yap and Koror...hazardous conditions are possible again later in the week as the larger trade-wind swell approach the region from Chuuk. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am chst Friday for pmz151>154. && $$ Middlebrooke/kleeschulte