Updated: 1:19 AM ChST on January 27, 2015
Mainly cloudy. Lows overnight in the mid 70s.
Considerable cloudiness. Low 74F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph.
Windy with rain showers in the morning. Numerous thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Winds decreasing. High around 80F. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thunderstorms. Low 74F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then variable clouds during the afternoon with more showers at times. High 82F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Rain showers early with clearing later at night. Low around 75F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy skies. High 83F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph.
Windy with thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds ENE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Windy...scattered thunderstorms in the morning, becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 82F. Winds E at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Windy early...thunderstorms likely. Low around 75F. Winds E at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thunderstorms likely. Low near 75F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Scattered thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. High 82F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 75F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Thunderstorms likely. High 82F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Scattered thunderstorms. Low near 75F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Scattered thunderstorms. High 81F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. Low near 75F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
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Area forecast discussion...corrected National Weather Service tiyan GU 257 PM chst Thursday Mar 26 2015 Corrected typo in tropical systems section Synopsis... pgua wsr88d shows only isolated showers southwest of Guam coastal waters this afternoon. A large smoke plume is also evident extending southwestward from near Leo palace. Fresh winds are evident across the marianas. A tropical disturbance remains to the east-southeast of Guam...near Pohnpei. && Discussion... no significant changes made to inherited grids. Latest model run...both the gfs40 and European model (ecmwf)...has pushed the onset of scattered showers associated with the tropical disturbance near Pohnpei to Monday. Chose to wait until at least Friday to see if the models remain consistent with this pattern before making any changes since considerable uncertainty concerning the development and movement of this disturbance exists. Regardless of the movement of this system...breezy conditions will continue for the next few days. && Marine... winds and seas look to increase slowly through tonight into Friday and could reach Small Craft Advisory level Friday morning or early afternoon. Seas remain around 6 to 7 feet this afternoon and are expected to increase to between 8 and 10 feet Friday night...while winds are expected to reach 25 knots Friday evening. Beyond Saturday night...weather conditions depend heavily on the development and movement of the disturbance near Pohnpei. && Fire weather... dry and breezy conditions are expected to continue over the next couple of days. A few fires are evident across southern Guam this afternoon...with the main fire located near Leo palace. Dry and breezy conditions will maintain the risk of wild fires...yet conditions are not dry enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch at this time. An approaching tropical disturbance is expected to bring scattered showers to the area late this weekend or early next week that will help mitigate the short term fire danger. && Tropical systems... the exposed low-level circulation of invest area 98w is centered near 6n161e...with the most significant convection across the north semi-Circle. 98w seems slightly better organized this afternoon but seems nearly stationary at this time. Most models still indicate it will gradually move toward west-northwest and further develop in the coming days...and we will need to watch it closely. && Eastern micronesia... invest area 98w centered between Kosrae and Pohnpei seems nearly stationary this afternoon. Satellite shows numerous showers spread around the north semi-Circle toward Pohnpei...while more showers were developing in convergent flow from across Kosrae state to the southern rmi and along the Equator. Rain could be heavy overnight for Pohnpei and scattered showers will linger across Kosrae and Majuro tonight at least. Models indicate 98w will gradually move toward the west-northwest and further develop in the coming days. Models also indicate that weather will be very slow to improve across eastern micronesia while a pattern of low-level convergence and a wet trade-wind flow persists through this weekend. Sea conditions...due to the small wind field of 98w...not much swell is anticipated near Pohnpei for the near term. The 15 to 20 knots winds north and northeast of the center will produce higher wind waves on top of the already present trade-wind swell. Therefore...expect a period of higher seas tonight through Friday but seas should remain below hazardous levels for small craft at Pohnpei and Kosrae. For Majuro...trade-wind waves and swell will sustain higher seas across the Marshall Islands and seas could reach hazardous levels for small craft on Monday or Tuesday. && Western micronesia... Chuuk...model consensus indicates a west-northwest track of invest area 98w over the next several days. This forecast track takes 98w passing north of weno island Saturday evening. With only modest middle- level wind shear and enhanced divergent upper-level flows...it is likely for 98w to become better organized by then...and needs to be watched closely. Scattered showers are expected for Chuuk from Friday afternoon through Saturday and sea conditions could approach hazardous levels during the same time period. After 98w passes the Chuuk area then some showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as converging southeast winds train over the island. Yap and Koror...ascat analysis shows a remnant shear line across the Yap and Palau area with patchy clouds and a few showers persisting over far western micronesia. Models indicate moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the area in the coming days with mainly just isolated shower coverage. In the longer term...models consensus indicates that invest area 98w over eastern micronesia will move toward west-northwest and develop slowly...possibly affecting Yap and Koror by Monday or Tuesday. Later forecasts for Koror and Yap will depend heavily on the development and track of invest area 98w. Most of the northeast swell created by fresh to strong winds over the Philippine Sea are expected to remain north of Yap and Koror through Friday morning. The strong winds will shift eastward into the Mariana islands by Friday afternoon and this could help raise surf along north facing shores at Yap and Koror to near hazardous levels by Friday night. Seas and surf could build further early next week as invest area 98w passes just north of Yap. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ Kleeschulte/Simpson