Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 79°
  • Scattered Clouds
  • Wind: ENE 23 mph
  • Humidity: 74%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 70°
  • Pressure: 29.97 in. +

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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

Forecast for Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia

Updated: 7:00 PM ChST on November 01, 2014

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NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...resent 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
731 am chst Friday Feb 27 2015 


Resent for posting on webpage 


Synopsis...east trade-winds and a few small showers prevail 
across the marianas this morning. Relatively dry weather is 
expected through the weekend. 


&& 


Discussion... 
little change made to the forecast. High pressure centered east 
of Japan will keep winds between 15 to 20 miles per hour today. 2 kft winds 
on the VAD were 25 knots and scatterometer data showed northeast 
winds between 15 to 20 kts. These wind speeds are consistent with 
current model predictions. Winds will decrease slightly tonight 
before another high pressure area builds out into the northwest 
Pacific and elevates wind speeds. 


Radar imagery this morning showed only a few small showers moving 
across the local area. Model predictions keep deep layer moisture 
lacking through the forecast. GFS...European model (ecmwf) and navgem show weak 
convergence across the area Saturday and they also portray a weak 
trough moving across the marianas Monday through Tuesday. While 
these features may produce a few more clouds still only expect 
isolated showers to prevail because of the lack of deep moisture. 


&& 


Marine... 
observations this morning from the ritidian and ipan buoy indicated 
seas at around 7 to 8 feet. A north and a northeast swell will 
persist through the forecast. Global wave watch and ep10 show the 
north swell decreasing slightly Saturday night. These swells will 
keep a moderate risk of rip currents on north and east facing 
reefs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a red flag warning remains in effect. Winds should increase 
during the day and relative humidity should decrease enough 
to satisfy red flag warning criteria. Dry conditions should 
persist at least through the weekend...so the Fire Weather 
Watch will most likely need to be extended. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
a shear line is expected to persist near Chuuk and Pohnpei...and 
north of Kosrae and Majuro through this evening. Two trade-wind 
disturbances moving westward from west of Kosrae will continue to 
interact with the shear line and trigger sporadic convection near 
Pohnpei today and Chuuk through this evening. As the sub-tropical 
high currently west of midway gradually weakens and drifts 
eastward on Saturday....this should cause the shear line to become 
more diffuse. Therefore anticipate shower coverage to decrease 
near both locations by Saturday morning. 


Latest rapidscat satellite imagery reveals a circulation lingering 
southwest of Pohnpei near 1n154e. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
generated by the aforementioned sub-tropical high are converging 
against gentle trades east of the circulation. This has established 
a convergent zone between the Equator and 5n from 161e to 173e. 
Deep convection associated with this zone will impact Kosrae through 
this weekend. As these trades push farther westward on Sunday... 
this convergent zone might extend into Pohnpei and Chuuk as well. 
Toward midweek next week...decreasing trade convergence should 
finally allow drier weather to return to all three locales. Since 
Majuro will be well to the northeast of the convergent zone...a 
dry trade regime will dominate the atoll most of the forecast 
period. The only exception will be Sunday and Monday which a weak 
trade disturbance from upstream east of the date line near 170w 
might spark off a few showers. 


Wave watch 3 model and satellite altimetry data are beginning to 
show a downward trend on the north-northeast swell across Chuuk... 
Pohnpei and Kosrae states this morning. This should allow surf to 
drop below hazardous levels on Kosrae by this evening and Pohnpei 
..Chuuk on Saturday. Combined seas of 8 to 10 feet...hazardous 
for small craft operation will linger near Chuuk and Pohnpei until 
this evening. The north-northeast swell is expected to peak near 
Majuro today....producing surf heights of 8 to 9 feet. This will 
cause higher risk of rip currents but no hazardous surf is 
anticipated. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
the Chuuk forecast discussion is included with eastern micronesia 
above due to a similar synoptic weather pattern as Pohnpei and Kosrae. 


According to the latest water vapor satellite loop...the upper-level 
trough moving toward Yap and Koror from the southeast has weakened 
overnight. As a result...no significant weather is going to occur 
during the passage of this system...maybe a slight chance of 
thunderstorms near Koror tonight. Mainly moderate northeasterly 
trades and isolated showers will prevail through this weekend. A 
developing frontal system over southern China is going to track 
east- northeastward into southern Japan by early next week. This 
system should weaken the sub-tropical ridge near 22n which might 
allow the near-equatorial trough currently near 5n to lift 
northward closer to Koror and Yap. If so...the chance of showers 
will increase for both places by Monday. 


Satellite altimetry data from late last night indicate seas have 
drop further to between 5 and 7 feet near Yap. This agrees with the 
wave watch 3 model guidance which suggests surf has fallen below 
advisory levels this morning. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...red flag warning until 6 PM chst this evening for guz001. 


Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ziobro/chan 



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