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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 646 am chst Monday Nov 30 2015 Synopsis... dry trade-wind flow is back in place...for now. West of 160e... only minor trade-wind disturbances are evident in satellite imagery. Water vapor imagery shows an inflow anticyclone centered just northeast of the forecast zones near 19n149e. A middle to upper- level low is centered north of Pohnpei near 10n160e. && Discussion... reduced cloud cover to partly cloudy today based on local observations and satellite imagery. Next weather maker will be the middle to upper-level low near Pohnpei. Models and satellite still suggest cloud and shower coverage will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday night...but quantitative precipitation forecast amounts during this time frame are modest. Any scattered showers will be on the mesoscale...so will wait for a more coherent signal for these before adding them to the grids. Isolated thunder may be possible as this system passes through if the upper-level dynamics are vigorous enough. Unsettled weather appears to be in the offing for the remainder of the forecast period as convergent trades linger in the wake of the departing middle to upper-level low. && Marine... latest ascat imagery showed winds in the 15 to 20-knot range over the marine zones. Buoys have subsided to around 8 feet. Have dropped the Small Craft Advisory accordingly. Expect nearly steady state marine conditions for the next couple of days...then winds and seas should subside. Surf will remain at moderate rip current risk levels through the end of the week. && Eastern micronesia... satellite imagery shows convection confined well south of Pohnpei and Kosrae along the near-equatorial trough axis. Another disturbance generating showers and thunderstorms along the date line is being fueled by upper-level divergence. Generally dry trades will persist over all locations in the short term...but the westward moving disturbance will bring increasing clouds...showers and isolated thunderstorms to Majuro by Tuesday...then to Kosrae and Pohnpei by middle to late week. && Western micronesia... generally dry conditions are seen across the region with the exception of a few showers and thunderstorms moving toward Palau from Yap. Isolated thunderstorms will linger near Koror through Tuesday night. After a few thunderstorms this morning...Yap will dry out and stay fairly dry through the week. Chuuk weather will stay dry for much of the week. Clouds will increase late in the week as the disturbance in eastern micronesia approaches. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ McElroy/W. Aydlett