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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 79 °
• Rain Showers

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 79 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 84 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 79 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 79 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
543 am chst Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place with deep-layer 
ridging and upper-level subsidence overhead. Infrared satellite loop 
shows an active trade-wind convergence zone stretched across 
micronesia... but all the significant shower coverage is confined 
well to the south of Guam between 2n and 10n. 


&& 


Discussion... 
forecast closely follows persistence. Did consider slight chance 
wording for today but slightly deeper moisture appears to be 
arriving from the east southeast. Weather pattern remains 
relatively quiet through Friday...then model guidance 
increasingly hints at a pattern change beginning this weekend. 
NOGAPS...GFS and European model (ecmwf) all bring deeper moisture in from the 
southeast. NOGAPS and GFS on Sunday...and the European model (ecmwf) on Monday. 
For now...maintained a Sunday onset of mostly cloudy skies in the 
forecast grids. Stayed with scattered showers during this time 
frame as well...but reduced probability of precipitation to 30 percent. Periods of 
scattered showers can be expected from time to time during days 6 
through 10...but exactly where or when the rains will take place 
will depend on the exact track and evolution of mesoscale 
convective systems. Models differ among themselves and also from 
run to run on where quantitative precipitation forecast will occur...so elected to broad brush 
rainfall during this time frame with a 30 percent pop. 


&& 


Marine... 
marine swell grids required only a few cosmetic changes. Still 
expect moderate rip current risk to persist along east facing 
reefs for at least the next several days. Combined seas in the 
open ocean should remain in the 4 to 6 foot range for the 
remainder of this week. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
a busy weather pattern remains in place across the region this 
morning. Most showers and thunderstorms are located across the 
Marshall Islands. Mainly short term adjustments were made for 
slightly improved weather over Kosrae and Pohnpei. Wetter weather 
is expected to redevelop over these two locations by midweek as 
showers across the Marshalls move west. For the long term... 
models still show a northward shift of the convergence band that 
will bring lighter winds and drier weather to the three locales 
by the weekend. Satellite and long-range radar imagery from 
kwajalein indicates rainfall over some of the northern atolls of 
the Marshalls. Models show additional much needed rain will fall 
over the northern atolls during the next several days. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
the eastern end of the monsoon trough passes over Koror. This 
feature is helping to focus showers and thunderstorms near there 
this morning. This trough will lift northward today as drier 
weather spreads towards Koror from Yap. Ridging will promote 
drier conditions on Koror briefly before showers near a 
disorganized trade-wind disturbance currently south of Guam 
spread west. A band of showers associated with trade-wind 
convergence will develop and extend westward across the region 
during the last half of the week. Periods of scattered showers 
will be possible during this time over all three locations...but 
their exact timing is hard to determine. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


McElroy/M. Aydlett