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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service tiyan GU 804 am chst Tuesday Sep 1 2015 Synopsis... pgua Doppler weather radar shows isolated showers...a few of which are near the Point of becoming thunderstorms...moving through the marianas waters. The VAD wind profile reveals southeast winds of 5 to 9 knots through the lowest 2 thousand feet of the air. && Discussion... winds are almost low enough to allow for island convection...only reaching 15 knots at 300 mb on the sounding last night. However... the direction of southeast is not very favorable. Nevertheless... left isolated thunderstorms in due to the proximity of the monsoon trough and rather ample low-level moisture. Showers on radar are indicating near thunderstorm activity which supports this. Marianas will dry out a bit starting Thursday. Otherwise the rest of this week looks like more light winds and just moderate seas. && Tropical systems... hurricane kilo is just east of the date line. It is expected to cross the date line...in which case it would be christened typhoon kilo. It is then expected to track nearly westward at around 23n. Kilo is currently a major hurricane and is expected to remain a major typhoon through the next several days as it passes through the western Pacific. It is expected to remain north of all the major islands of micronesia...however it may pose some threat to southern islands of Japan. && Eastern micronesia... the monsoon trough remains the focus over micronesia. Scattered showers to the east of Majuro are expected to move back over the atoll around noon today...then slowly diminish through the afternoon. Conditions will continue to improve there through the remainder of the week...with much drier conditions likely for the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across portions of Pohnpei and Kosrae states. Kosrae will see a bit of a break early this morning with convection reforming just east of the island for later this morning and this afternoon. Conditions are expected to begin to improve over Kosrae later today...but will linger through tonight over Pohnpei. Both locations will see gradual improvement through the remainder of the week...with much drier weather over the weekend...though skies will likely remain mostly cloudy as weak low-level convergence remains over the region. && Western micronesia... low-level convergence south of the monsoon trough is generating scattered showers across Palau this morning. Most of these showers are now west of Yap and not expected to redevelop over the island. Koror will continue to see scattered showers through the day and possibly tonight as well. Unsettled conditions will remain over both Yap and Koror through tonight and then begin to improve for the last half of the week and into the weekend. For Chuuk...fair conditions will prevail there through tonight until unsettled weather moves closer to the area from Pohnpei. Continued forecast for isolated showers and a slight chance of thunder for now...but periods of scattered showers are possible late in the week and weekend. && Gum watches/warnings/advisories... GU...none. Marianas waters...none. && $$ Stanko/kleeschulte