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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 37 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 39 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 37 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 43 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
936 am MDT Sat may 18 2013 


Update... 


Updated forecast to issue a lake Wind Advisory for the American 
Falls Reservoir. Observations the past couple of hours have shown 
wind speeds near 20 miles per hour. Expect winds to remain near this speed 
through the afternoon and early evening. Made some minor 
adjustments to sky and precipitation chances for the afternoon and 
tonight as well. Still looks rather unsettled across the region 
today...especially over the eastern Highlands. 


Valle 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 311 am MDT Sat may 18 2013/ 


Discussion...Sat imagery shows complex upper trough swinging 
through the region this morning. Main circulation center over 
northwest Utah this morning...with large swath of precipitation 
extending north into southeast corner of eastern Idaho per radar 
imagery. Next circulation of interest in northeast Oregon with 
smaller and weaker area of precipitation associated with it. 
Models swing trough northeast this morning with negative tilt. 
Airmass becomes weakly unstable by 18z over most of the region so 
have maintained high pop grids through the day with isolated 
thunder into the afternoon. Eastern Idaho remains under the 
influence of cyclonic flow with next stronger shortwave already 
along the Oregon coast this morning prognosticated to reach the region 
overnight tonight. Models not quite in agreement on best location 
for development this evening into Sunday thus broadbrushed light 
chance probability of precipitation with slight snake plain. Trough deepens into closed 
low over the Great Plains by Monday with only lingering light 
showers along the eastern Highlands as ridge begins to build into 
the pacnw. 


Ridge shortlived in the amplified but progressive flow with next 
Pacific trough reaching the coast during the day Tuesday. Both GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) agree on development of this next large low over the 
region through the latter half of the week though GFS keeps the 
center of the low slightly further north than the European model (ecmwf). Interestingly 
both models also maintain a large dry slot centered over eastern 
Idaho with precipitation pushed mainly north of the area. Given the depth 
of the low...opted to maintain weak probability of precipitation most areas through the 
week. Dmh 


Aviation...rain and convective showers expected from pih to Ida and 
areas eastward today. MVFR possible near convective showers this 
afternoon while VFR for rest of the area. Gusty southwest winds are 
expected by this afternoon from the southwest in the Snake River 
Plain. Preston 


Fire weather...numerous rain showers are possible in the southeast 
corner today with wetting rains as as an upper trough moves through 
the area. Isolated afternoon convective showers are possible in 
unstable air over all the area this afternoon. Behind this exiting 
system gusty southwest winds will develop in the Snake River Plain 
by this afternoon. A second shot of energy will develop on Sunday 
with more showers possible. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are 
expected on Monday and Tuesday as upper ridging moves into the northwest. A deep 
upper low is expected to move into the Pacific northwest by Wednesday...however 
current model trends keep our area in the warm sector with a few 
afternoon thunderstorms possible especially in the central Idaho 
mountains through the later part of the week. Preston 


&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories... 
lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening idz021. 


&& 


$$