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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
238 am EDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
issued at 215 am EDT sun may 19 2013 


A weak upper low will eject northeast today...with a shower or 
thunderstorm possible over mainly Ohio. Otherwise...an upper level 
ridge will build northeast across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley 
region early this week. Temperatures will become hot by Monday with 
highs around 90. As the upper level ridge builds east...showers and 
thunderstorms will spread east in advance of a cold front and 
upper level disturbance Monday through Thursday. Rainfall amounts 
should exceed an inch by late in the week. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 259 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013 


Stationary boundary situated across southern half of the area this 
afternoon...with dry boundary layer conditions north of the front 
and higher moisture south. High res guidance continues to indicate 
isolated convective development along and south of the front this 
afternoon as middle level impulse tracks southeast out of southern Illinois. 
Aligned slight chance probability of precipitation along and south of surface moisture 
gradient...roughly along and south of a Lima to Rochester line...and 
west of a Rochester to Michigan City line. Limited slight chance 
thunder mention to southwest areas...where surface Li values dip to -3 
to -4c through early evening. 


Rain chances quickly diminish after 00z...with dry easterly flow 
across areas north of the boundary. Kept low temperatures about the same as 
previous forecast...maybe a touch lower in northeast areas. Frontal 
boundary will begin to push north through the area early Sunday 
morning through the afternoon Sunday. Warm temperatures with higher 
dewpoints expected on Sunday. Left highs the same...with low to 
upper 80s across the area...highest temperatures northeast where cloud 
cover should be limited. 


Kept probability of precipitation dry tomorrow across the area. Models indicate small precipitation 
chances across southeast areas tomorrow afternoon...however feel 
that lack of forcing...and main middle level energy well south of the 
area along the Ohio River valley...warrants a dry Sunday forecast. 


&& 


Long term...(sunday night through saturday) 
issued at 259 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013 


Amplification of the middle-upper tropopause pattern underway as strong jet 
dynamics move onshore in the western US today. Result will have 
500mb ridging extending up from the Tennessee Valley into the Great Lakes 
region to begin the forecast period. Well defined quasi-stationary surface 
boundary across North-Central Indiana...as evidenced by 20f dewpoint 
gradient across the area this morning...will become more diffuse 
with time as flow becomes more southerly and new baroclinic zone 
establishes over the northern Great Lakes region. Result will have 
our area in a moderately unstable warm sector with convective available potential energy great 
2000j/kg. This is expected to be aided by middle level forcing rounding 
up through the east side of upper level low in the north-Central 
Plains and lend potential for convection to become marginally severe 
by Monday afternoon. BUFKIT forecast soundings showing a fairly 
unidirectional and weakly sheared environment which will serve as a 
limiting factor. Vertically stacked plains system will then slowly 
work across the area Tue-Thu...bringing best precipitation chances with it 
despite weakening trends as it moves through. Models offering 
varying solutions on the exit of this system. GFS has upper trough more 
detached from the mean flow and therefore a slower solution...allowing a 
surface frontal wave to develop and move up through the area. Meanwhile 
European model (ecmwf) indicates a bit of phasing with the northern stream as Hudson 
Bay vortex drops down through eastern Ontario and absorbs the 
orphaned trough into the northern stream flow and shifts the mean trough 
axis toward the eastern US. Allblend seems to offer good compromise 
with lingering small chance into Thursday night but will trim back 
Friday to keep forecast dry. Barring any debris cloud shield from 
nocturnal convection Sunday night...low level thermal ridge moving 
over the area would support temperatures mixing down to near 90....so will 
continue with going forecast of u80s. Cooler Canadian airmass by the end 
of the week will have temperatures markedly cooler compared to Monday but 
still only seasonably cool for this time of year. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) 
issued at 230 am EDT sun may 19 2013 


A tight moisture gradient remained over the area for a third 
straight night...with dew points just south of the terminals in 
the lower 60s. North of the boundary...dew points were in the 
40s. Given some VFR clouds over the area...kept fog out for now. 
Vpz with a dew pt of 60f had some light fog at 06z...but surface 
conditions were drier northeast. Afternoon convective available potential energy of near 2000 j/kg 
would support convection...but given light wind fields and nothing 
to force or focus convection...kept tafs dry with VFR conditions. 


&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Michigan...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...marsili/kg 
short term...ng 
long term...Jal 
aviation...skipper 




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