Severe Weather Alerts

Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Saturday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
759 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Update... 
issued at 758 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Scattered thunderstorms and rain moving e30kts having ventured over western Kingman have prompted 
an update to apply coverage descriptor (sct tsra) & to slightly 
increase quantitative precipitation forecast to SC Kansas until 15z. Remainder of inherited forecast on track 
& therefore kept intact. 


&& 


Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 308 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


A warm front will develop across the Southern Plains today into 
tonight...before moving northward across our forecast area Friday. 
Rich 850 mb moisture has been moving northward from the long Route 
of the Rio Grande. Estimates are that the edge of this moisture 
could reach our far southwestern counties this morning. A couple of 
weak impulses...one presently over co/nm...will eject out of the 
southwest across the Kansas region today with some isentropic 
upglide occurring over our southwest counties. Any storms 
developing in our southwestern counties could pose a hail 
threat...given steep middle-level lapse rates...elevated cape of 
1000-1500 j/kg...and west-nwrly deep layer shear vectors of 45 knots. A 
higher probability of significant severe weather will exist from 
the Texas/OK panhandles into western OK closer to the warm front. 
Will maintain a chance of thunderstorms over central/south central 
Kansas Friday as the warm front moves through with strong moisture 
advection. For Saturday-Saturday night...the models hint at mesoscale convective system 
activity across Nebraska and northeast Kansas near and north of the 
warm front. Any storms forming along dryline will likely be more 
isolated and should diminish Saturday night as they attempt to 
move eastward with convective inhibition rapidly increasing. Gusty 
southerly winds of 15-30 miles per hour expected Saturday with decent 
pressure gradient and low level jet axis over the area. 


Jmc 


Long term...(sunday through wednesday) 
issued at 308 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Lee trough/dryline will remain in place over the High Plains ahead 
of the western Continental U.S. Upper trough. Gusty southerly winds can be 
expected on a daily basis...with rich Gulf moisture/instability in 
place east of the dryline. A few thunderstorms could form each 
afternoon near the dryline...and with nightly southerly low-level 
jets...will maintain some low probabilities (20-40%) of 
thunderstorms in our area. The pattern could become more active in 
terms of severe weather toward middle-late week although the models 
differ on the ejection timing of a significant piece of energy out 
of the western Continental U.S. Trough. Temperatures will be slightly above 
seasonal norms. 


Jmc 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning) 
issued at 715 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


At taf issuance am not anticipating any northward development from severe 
+tsra moving e30kts over central OK as airmass over SC & southeast Kansas capped 
plus low-level jet is beginning to weaken. Scattered --ra occurring from 
krsl-kgld should dissipate in next couple hours. All terminals to 
maintain VFR status as northerly winds ~10kts gradually become NE/east ~15 
kts by 18z. Scattered thunderstorms and rain possible over primarily SW & western Kansas tonight 
as lower-deck flow becomes more south-southeasterly & increases to enable Richer 
lower-deck moisture to migrate north from West Texas to along Kansas/Colorado border & 
with SW middle-level flow the scattered thunderstorms and rain may venture as far west as krsl & 
khut ~09z. This issue will be addressed in subsequent taf 
issuances (especially the 00z & 06z editions.) 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20 
Hutchinson 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30 
Newton 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20 
Eldorado 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20 
Winfield-kwld 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20 
Russell 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30 
Great Bend 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30 
Salina 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30 
McPherson 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30 
Coffeyville 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20 
Chanute 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20 
Iola 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20 
Parsons-kppf 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$