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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 72 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
630 am CDT Thu Jun 20 2013 


Short term...(today through Friday night) 
issued at 342 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013 


Recent infrared satellite imagery shows a persistent north-S band of altocumulus castellanus has 
migrated to a Manhattan-Eureka, Kansas line, with additional sct ac east 
toward the MO border. Isentropic lift continues to steadily increase 
along the nose of a modest 30 knot low level jet, and convective 
allowing short term models continue to indicate thunderstorm 
development in this area in the next 1-2 hours. Considerable 
uncertainty remains with respect to thunderstorm potential given the 
presence of weak capping around 700mb, which will only strengthen 
throughout the morning hours as an upper level ridge axis approaches 
from the west. Additionally, any activity that does develop would 
likely exhibit a slow net eastward movement as the low level jet veers, with 
any storms likely dissipating over west central MO late morning as 
the forcing diminishes. Thus, have focused low chance pops over the 
far western County Warning Area and only this morning. 


Assuming convective debris remains at a minimum, temperatures should 
easily reach the mid-upper 80s this afternoon, with the dewpoints 
beginning to notch upward as southerly winds strengthen and become 
gusty over the western zones. Afternoon cu will likely bubble up once 
again, but the alignment of the upper ridge axis through the County Warning Area 
along by afternoon will likely suppress more than isolated 
thunderstorm development. 


Capping inversion associated with a 592dm ridge will strengthen over 
the region tonight, while a southerly influx of Gulf moisture 
continues. Focus for convection should shift well north and west of 
the cwa, but will keep low pops across the far north this evening as 
a weak 500mb perturbation lifts along the back side of the ridge axis 
through nrn MO. Otherwise, the synoptic setup both at the surface and 
aloft suggests we will enter a stretch of seasonably hot and humid 
conditions for the region, with afternoon highs Friday in the lower 
90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees in many areas. 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 342 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013 


A weak ridge pattern will continue to develop over the eastern 
plains into the Ohio River valley this weekend and into early next 
week, which will result in above normal temperatures and generally 
low precipitation chances through the long-range forecast period. 
The propagation of nocturnal convection into northern portions of 
the forecast area will be the most likely scenario for thunderstorms 
during the period, and at this time looks most likely on Sunday 
night and Wednesday night. Although high temperatures are expected 
to be several degrees above normal in the lower to mid 90s, and will 
combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s during most 
afternoons, heat indices should generally Max out around 100 f and 
keep conditions below heat advisory criteria. However if the ridge 
strengthens or the thermal axis shifts slightly to the southeast, 
heat concerns can't be completely ruled out, especially by middle 
next week. 




&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning) 
issued at 626 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013 


VFR conditions are expected to persist for the majority of the area 
through the forecast period. A few very isolated showers or storms 
may form over the next 1-3 hours in far western missouri; however, 
the probability of storms impacting any one location is very low. 
Otherwise, scattered cumulus with bases around 4,000 to 5,000 ft are 
expected to develop across the region this afternoon, and a few 
isolated thunderstorms are possible across northern Missouri late 
this afternoon and this evening. Winds will remain out of the south 
southeast through the period, gusting up to 20 to 25 kts from late 
morning through early evening. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...bookbinder 
long term...Laflin 
aviation...Laflin