marine weather discussion

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

829 PM EST sun 12 Feb 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

At 13/0000z low pres 982 mb ovr the Labrador Sea Canada has a

cld frnt sttetching S passing ovr the ern edge of Newfoundland

into another low pres 977 mb ovr nwfndlnd. A cld frnt continues

S from this low to pass 360 nm E of the wtrs. Inland hgh pres

1032 mb ovr the srn states has a ridge xtndg NE passing ovr the

mid Atlc states. The pres grdnt is still tight ovr the region

and obs hv winds reaching gale force. 27 ft seas are peaking

just E of the region with 24 ft seas over the ern edge of the

srn wtrs. The nww3 and ECMWF WV mdls agree with the seas pattern

but are underdone in a few areas that hv hgh winds. The glbl

mdls are in agrmnt on most of the synop features ovr the region.

Only CMC seem to differ slightly with the low pres that will

form ovr Canada in the short term. The glbl mdls suggest that

the low pres ovr newfndld NE of Georges Bank will swiftly mv N

into Davis Strait Canada. The inland hgh pres ovr the srn states

will mv E and xtnd its ridge across the region forcing the pres

grdnt to slacken. Winds will dinimish to below gale force. The

rifge will dominate the wtrs until another weak low dvlps and

pass its trof close to the nrn wtrs. Will update fcst following

GFS soln.

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The previous discussion folows...

Sfc low near 38n65w this mrng is quickly moving NNE...aob 65 kt.

Strong NW gales on the back side of this low are dmnshing. Will

likley began tngt with NW gales N of Cape Fear. The excptn...wl

make a last minute dscn for the Gulf of Maine where init winds

wl likley be only 20 to 30 kt. Winds in the NW Gulf winds are

already dwn to 20 to 25 kt. By Mon mrng...xpct winds to be down

to 20 to 30 kt ovr these areas...with highest winds extending se

FM near husdon canyon. It is psbl that minml gales may hang on

for an xtra 1 to 3 hrs...but GFS brings 30m winds dwn to 30 kt

by 12z.

Lrg high will Glide across the srn waters late Mon into Tue...

helping to kp winds lgt early in the week.

On Wed...cold front begins to take shape NE to SW acrs the

waters S of 40n...as scnd high dvlps inland. Models are in bttr

agrmnt today on taking this weak ftr E of the offshore waters

late Wed...with only lgt SW winds ahd of the front and lgt NW

wind Post frntl winds. The xcptn is the UKMET which bring a sfc

high to Hudson cnyn by late Wed. Also...the GFS and to a lessor

xtnt the 00z ECMWF dvlp a weak sfc low ESE of Georges Bank Wed

ngt as weak S/W energy slides off the NE coast.

Next ftr to affect the waters is cold front fcst by the

GFS/ECMWF/UKMET to be just off the E coast by 12z Fri. The

models hv bn gradu bcmg more in agrmnt here and the GFS/ECMWF

fcst is rflctd in the HPC man prog. The GFS dvlps SW gales ahd

of this front...while the ECMWF/cdn are smlrly strng. Current

fcst is for lgt SW winds...so wl step winds up to 30 kt late Thu

into Fri. This can be upgraded to gale as cnfdc incrs. By 12z

Sat...all models sweep frnt past the offshr waters...but

disagree on location of strngth of accmpng sfc low. The GFS

offers a gd compromise...with W to NW winds to 30 ovr the N hlf

of the waters Fri. The cdn 981 mb low ovr the gf of Maine looks

too strng and slow while the ECMWF low 600 nm E of here is

deemed too fast.

Seas...although seas ovr the outer offshre waters were 3 to 4 ft

high than model fcst this mrng....seas are ggradu coming in line

as the NW flow dmnshs. So...will likle stay close to the

wavewatch iii fcst.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be

coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters

.Gulf of Maine...Gale tonite...low to mod confdc.

.Georges Bank...Gale tonite...high confdc.

.S of New England...Gale tonite...high confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters

.Hudson to balt cnyn...Gale tonite...high confdc.

.Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale tonite...high confdc.

.Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale tonite...high confdc.

.Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale tonight...mod to high confdc.

.Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster musonda/prosise. Ocean forecast branch.