Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 59°
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Wind: West 4 mph
  • Humidity: 51%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 41°
  • Pressure: 29.86 in. -

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Next 12 Hours

2  pm
5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
2  am
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
Rain
Rain
63°
59°
55°
52°
54°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 66 °
  • Low: 48 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Rain
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 39 °
  • Rain
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 34 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 63 °
  • Low: 39 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 70 °
  • Low: 48 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2014

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain, then rain after midnight. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

  • Saturday

    Overcast with rain. High of 54F. Breezy. Winds from the North at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, then clear. Low of 39F. Breezy. Winds from the NNW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 54F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 34F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 63F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 39F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 70F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 48F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 70F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 55F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 70F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 46F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 64F. Winds from the North at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 43F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 64F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Mostly cloudy. Low of 48F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High of 64F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 61F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 46F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.4 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.2 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: North at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.7 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.0 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: North at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hogan Woods Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 58.5 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.8 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.0 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: SW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.49 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.7 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 35% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 58.4 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:19 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.3 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lystra Estates, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.3 °F Dew Point: 47 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 58.9 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.4 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cedar Grove, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.0 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:21 PM EDT

Temperature: 62.0 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: West at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Frosty Meadow, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.7 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Churton Grove, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: NNW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 62.0 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.34 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 62.8 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Heritage Heights, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:23 PM EDT

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Country Lane Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.5 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Copperleaf, Cary, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 60.4 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: SSW at 1.3 mph Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: NE Durham County, (DW), Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.0 °F Dew Point: 42 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: NNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 59.6 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Twin Lakes, Cary, NC

Updated: 2:18 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.9 °F Dew Point: 41 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: West at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Swann's Mill, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:21 PM EDT

Temperature: 61.9 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Jordan Lake, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 2:20 PM EDT

Temperature: 58.3 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cascades, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 2:19 PM EDT

Temperature: 58.0 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Overlook, Cary, NC

Updated: 2:14 PM EDT

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 59% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Calander Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 2:24 PM EDT

Temperature: 57.0 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: NW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
130 PM EDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Synopsis...a powerful storm system will affect the area tonight 
through Saturday night. Low pressure will develop over the western 
Carolinas this afternoon... then track east toward the coast 
tonight. This coastal low will then rapidly strengthen and turn 
northeastward along the middle Atlantic coast Saturday and Saturday 
night. Cold high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night 
through Monday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 1025 am Friday... 


Rest of today: earlier forecast is on track. A large area of 
stratocu has hampered the temperature rise somewhat over the northwest 
Piedmont... but otherwise abundant sunshine ahead of our incoming 
storm has allowed temperatures to rise through the lower 50s so far... on 
pace to reach highs in the low-middle 60s (except for upper 50s to near 
60 in the nw). The coastal low just off the Outer Banks and its 
associated precipitation and cloud shield continues to move NE away from 
the forecast area... and subsiding and fairly dry air in its 
immediate wake should yield several hours of sunshine over much of 
central NC. The northwest Piedmont lower cloudiness should pivot NE out of 
the area... allowing at least partial sunshine... however 
encroaching middle clouds from the west and SW will limit full heating 
there. Extrapolation of scattered to numerous showers now over eastern 
Kentucky/eastern Tennessee into NE Alabama/northwest Georgia brings this activity into our western County Warning Area by 
middle to late afternoon... a few hours faster than the latest hrrr 
runs but very close to our existing forecast... so little to no 
change needed there for now. -Gih 




Previous discussion as of 330 am: 
relative calm before the storm today. A narrow ridge of 1018 mb high 
pressure was analyzed at 07z over the middle Atlantic and western 
Carolinas this morning...in between a developing coastal low along 
the old frontal zone a few hundred miles off the coast of the 
Carolinas and a trio of flatter waves over northern ms; western ky; 
and northern Michigan. Aloft...three distinct shortwave troughs are 
evident in WV imagery in association with the surface waves - one 
off the southeast coast...another over the mid-south...and the most potent 
one over the western Great Lakes. 


The latest suite of nwp guidance is slightly farther south with the 
sharply amplifying shortwave trough and associated closed low 
evolution through the Carolinas...and the accompanying primary 
surface low forecast to cross the Carolinas tonight. The strongest 
low level cold air advection and already-only marginal opportunity for any wet 
flakes has consequently shifted south to the southern NC Piedmont. 
The relative highest chances of rain...and precipitation 
amounts...will also accordingly be focused in an arc from western NC 
to northern SC to eastern NC...as the surface low and deformation 
zone evolve in a region of strong ascent fueled by both the 
"dynamics" aloft and strong low-middle level fgen. 


The weak lead surface waves over northern MS and western Kentucky are 
forecast to continue east...beneath the parent shortwave 
trough...and merge into a single low in the Lee of the Appalachians 
this afternoon. This Lee low will then remain relatively stationary 
as the strongest height falls accompanying the potent shortwave 
amplifying sharply south-southeast from the western Great Lakes to the southern 
Appalachians allows the trailing surface low over northern Michigan and 
associated pressure falls to catch up to and "capture" the lead Lee 
low...with the then merged surface low forecast to move due east 
in vicinity of the SC/NC border tonight. 


Shallow convection...including sporadic lightning in an environment 
characterized by MUCAPE of up to a few hundred j/kg...will ease east 
from the SC upstate and NC foothills...into the NC southern and 
western Piedmont roughly between 7-10 PM. These showers and isolated 
storms will make only slow eastward progress across those areas 
through midnight...before the character of the precipitation assumes 
an increasingly stratiform precipitation shield with embedded 
shallow convective elements lingering owing to strong middle level cold air advection 
atop a warm/moist tongue wrapped cyclonically beneath the cold pool 
aloft...around the developing low level cyclone. Rain...with 
associated amounts between one half and one inch...will consequently 
gradually pivot across the sandhills and central Piedmont through 
daybreak...with much of the coastal plain and far NE Piedmont likely 
to experience only occasional light rain and amounts less than a 
tenth of an inch. Forecast partial thickness values hold in the 
indeterminate range throughout central NC from even the coldest 
ec/NAM guidance...and bufr soundings even in the southern and 
western Piedmont likewise maintain a couple of thousand feet above 
freezing boundary layer. Lows generally in the upper 30s to middle 
40s from west to east...after highs today in the upper 50s to middle 
60s. -Mws 


&& 


Short term /Sunday and Sunday night/... 
as of 130 PM Friday... 


Fair but unseasonably cool weather is expected on Sunday as high 
pressure builds in from the west in the wake of the departing 
trough. Forecast soundings and cross sections suggest a few 
lingering middle-level clouds at the start of the day...but skies 
should become mostly sunny by afternoon given dry northwest flow. A little 
breezy still in the morning and early afternoon while the high is 
building in...until the pressure gradient relaxes later in the day. Low 
level thicknesses are prognosticated to bottom out about 50m below 
average...around 1300m early Sunday...recovering to 1315m by late- 
day. This suggests highs in the lower 50s...about 15 degree below 
normal. 


High pressure is then prognosticated to become centered over the Carolinas 
by Monday morning. Given the airmass in place...light winds under 
the highs...and mainly clear skies...the expectation is still there 
that most of our County Warning Area will see a growing-season-ending frost or 
freeze Monday morning. However...will need to keep a close watch 
for the potential for some orographic cirrus...given northwest flow and 
some moisture spilling over the Middle Ridge axis. While confidence in 
this happening is customarily low right now (3 days out)...if it 
does materialize...looks like it would be mostly across our far 
western zones...so a decent frost/freeze event across most of our 
County Warning Area still looks likely. For now...will leave lows as-is...ranging 
from the upper 20s west to lower 30s east. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
as of 130 PM Friday... 


Ridging at surface and aloft will provide nice weather across central NC 
Monday and Tuesday. Thicknesses will continue moderating during this 
time...however with the surface high still centered over US Monday 
night...look for lows a couple degrees below normal Tuesday 
morning...upper 30s to around 40. Highs Monday around 60 and middle-upper 
60s on Tuesday. 


By late Tuesday...the high center will move off the coast...but the 
ridge axis will remain extended across the Carolinas. With low level 
flow becoming more southwesterly and a thickening canopy of cirrus with 
enhanced SW flow aloft over US...lows Wednesday morning will be 
warmer...in the middle-upper 40s. 


The next northern stream short wave will begin approaching our 
region during the day Wednesday and it's associated cold front crossing 
central NC late Thursday. Thus...Wednesday will see increasing 
cloudiness and warming nicely ahead of the front...but remaining 
dry. The best chance for any rain with this system will be on 
Thursday along and just ahead of the front...but moisture profiles 
across our area are modestly moist at best...so for now...will keep 
probability of precipitation limited to 20 percent or less on Thursday. Highs climbing above 
normal (around 70) for Wednesday and Thursday. 


Right now...next Friday looks to be breezy and cooler in the wake of 
the front...with decreasing cloudiness through the day. Highs 
cooling back down to near or below normal for weeks end. 


&& 


Climate... 


Record low-maximum temperatures for November 1st 


Low-maximum 


Rdu 50/1925 
gso 45/1925 
Fay 48/1988 


&& 


Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/... 
as of 1255 PM Friday... 


Patches of MVFR stratocu will linger at int/gso during the first 
couple of hours of this taf forecast period... but then ceilings should 
lift to VFR prior to 20z. Otherwise... at rdu/rwi/Fay... VFR 
conditions will dominate through 00z. We're currently in generally 
tranquil weather between low pressure off the Outer Banks and a 
powerful storm system over SW Michigan that will dive south then southeast... 
crossing the Carolinas late tonight through Sat. Ceilings are expected 
to drop to MVFR once again at int/gso with patchy rain between 00z 
and 02z... followed by a drop to IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities in 
steady rain most likely starting 02z-04z this evening. Expect these 
sub-VFR conditions (down to MVFR in patchy rain then to IFR/LIFR 
with more steady rain) to spread east into rdu between 04z and 08z 
tonight... and into rwi/Fay between 08z and 12z Sat morning. Ceilings 
may rebound a bit Sat morning but MVFR or IFR conditions are likely 
to still prevail at all sites after 12z Sat. Concern for brisk gusty 
winds will increase toward the end of the taf valid period... after 
13z Sat... when surface winds mainly from the north will start to 
increase to sustained 15-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts. 


Looking beyond 18z Sat: strong gusty surface winds will continue Sat 
afternoon and evening as they shift from north to northwest as the 
low strengthens off the coast. Ceilings expected to gradually rise to 
VFR as rain chances taper off at int/gso 21z-00z and 23z-04z Sat 
evening at rdu/rwi/Fay... with winds decreasing slowly late Sat 
night into Sun morning. VFR conditions will then hold under cold 
high pressure through Wednesday. -Gih 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...mws/Hartfield 
near term...Hartfield/mws 
short term...np 
long term...np 
climate...cbl 
aviation...Hartfield 



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