Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 67°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Variable 6 mph
  • Humidity: 66%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 55°
  • Pressure: 29.86 in. -

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Next 12 Hours

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3  am
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12  pm
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Chance of Rain
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65°
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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Thursday
  • Rain
  • High: 50 °
  • Low: 22 °
  • Rain
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 24 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 54 °
  • Low: 31 °
  • Clear
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 60 °
  • Low: 35 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 62 °
  • Low: 37 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 8:17 PM EST on January 04, 2015

  • Wednesday

    Light rain late. Lows overnight in the low 50s.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy skies during the evening will give way to cloudy skies and light rain after midnight. Low 51F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

  • Thursday

    Rain. High around 50F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch.

  • Thursday Night

    A light wintry mix in the evening will give way to partly cloudy skies late. Low 22F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 90%.

  • Friday

    Sunny. High 37F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    A mostly clear sky. Low 24F. Winds light and variable.

  • Saturday

    Sunny skies. High 54F. Winds light and variable.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear skies. Low 31F. Winds light and variable.

  • Sunday

    Sunshine and some clouds. High near 60F. Winds light and variable.

  • Sunday Night

    Overcast. Low near 35F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday

    Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy skies early will become overcast later during the night. Low 37F. Winds light and variable.

  • Tuesday

    Cloudy with showers. High 58F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Tuesday Night

    Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. Low 43F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Wednesday

    Cloudy with showers. High 64F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low around 45F. Winds light and variable.

  • Thursday

    Overcast. High 69F. Winds light and variable.

  • Thursday Night

    A few clouds. Low 42F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Cloudy with showers. High 56F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low 39F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High 56F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    A few clouds. Low around 40F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Public Information Statement  Statement as of 8:31 PM EST on March 4, 2015



... Wind reports past 12 hours ...

Location speed time/date
usfs met stn at Fort Bragg 42 mph 0314 PM 03/04
Burlington Municipal Airport 41 mph 0347 PM 03/04
Albemarle 40 mph 0355 PM 03/04
Laurinburg-Maxton Airport 40 mph 1251 PM 03/04
Asheboro 39 mph 0255 PM 03/04
Raleigh-Durham Intl Airport 39 mph 0259 PM 03/04
Lexington 38 mph 0216 PM 03/04
4 NW Greensboro 38 mph 0257 PM 03/04
Piedmont triad Intl Arpt 38 mph 1245 PM 03/04
Oxford 37 mph 0235 PM 03/04
Fort Bragg/simmo 37 mph 0217 PM 03/04
Duke Forest met sta nr chape 36 mph 0416 PM 03/04
4 ESE Warrenton 36 mph 0216 PM 03/04
Fayetteville regional/granni 36 mph 0204 PM 03/04
Goldsboro-Wayne Airport 36 mph 0358 PM 03/04
5 ENE Rockingham 36 mph 0345 PM 03/04
2 WNW Camp Mackall 36 mph 0240 PM 03/04
Pope AFB 36 mph 0243 PM 03/04
Moore County Airport 35 mph 0355 PM 03/04
Smith Reynolds Airport 35 mph 0228 PM 03/04
1 S Gillburg 35 mph 0348 PM 03/04
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport 35 mph 0215 PM 03/04

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposure. Not all data listed are considered official.



Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Shady Lawn Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.6 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Tenney Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.2 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.9 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Westminster Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Bendenkamp, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 10:55 PM EST

Temperature: 66.9 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Burning Tree Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 67.1 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 67.6 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: SSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: ESE at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Everwood, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:52 PM EST

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: SSW at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: CRN DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W NC US, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 10:00 PM EST

Temperature:  °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 65% Wind: North at 8 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: RAWS DUKE FOREST NC US, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 10:16 PM EST

Temperature: 68 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: SSW at 9 mph Pressure: 29.45 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Hunter's Ridge Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: North Garrett Road, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 65.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 59.7 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 81% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:00 PM EST

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 98% Wind: NE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.51 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:00 PM EST

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: SSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Windy Hill Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 10:57 PM EST

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 65.1 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: South at 5.4 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Amy Lane, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: ENE at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.9 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: SSW at 5.0 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:51 PM EST

Temperature: 66.1 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: SSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Tuscaloosa -Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:55 PM EST

Temperature: 62.8 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Rockwood, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 62.2 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Durham NC US, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:24 PM EST

Temperature: 66 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Fairfield, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:59 PM EST

Temperature: 67.0 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 65.2 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: WS1001BMC, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 67.3 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: South at 2.5 mph Pressure: 29.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lake Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 63.1 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 75% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.57 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Hillsborough NC US, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 10:23 PM EST

Temperature: 67 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: WSW at 2 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Rue du Lieutenant Chabal, Durham, NC

Updated: 10:55 PM EST

Temperature: 65.8 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.45 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Chapel Hill NC US, Bynum, NC

Updated: 10:29 PM EST

Temperature: 64 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Huckleberry Heights, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.9 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: South at 2.8 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 64.7 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Lawrence Road, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 11:01 PM EST

Temperature: 66.4 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Cedar Grove, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 11:00 PM EST

Temperature: 65.7 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: SW at 6.0 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Burdens Creek, Morrisville, NC

Updated: 10:50 PM EST

Temperature: 68.4 °F Dew Point: - Humidity: 63% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Carolina Preserve, Cary, NC

Updated: 10:57 PM EST

Temperature: 65.9 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: ESE at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 10:59 PM EST

Temperature: 64.5 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 79% Wind: East at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
930 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015 


Synopsis...a strong cold front will push southward through central 
North Carolina late tonight through Thursday... as waves of low 
pressure track eastward along the front. Arctic high pressure will 
build over the region behind the front Thursday night through 
Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday night/... 
as of 930 PM Wednesday... 


Most notable change this evening will be to reduce or eliminate probability of precipitation 
over the southeast County Warning Area. Latest surface analysis shows the 
anticipated cold front extending along The Spine of the NC 
Appalachians then bending to extend eastward just north of the NC/Virginia 
border. The front has been inching very slowly southward in the last 
few hours... and latest high-res model output supports this trend... 
taking the front to a position roughly along or just south of the I- 
85 corridor around daybreak... a very slightly slower speed than 
previous runs depicted. Temperatures north of the front are expected 
to plunge into the 40s... while to its south... readings are likely 
to drop no further than the upper 50s overnight. The gridded lamp 
guidance is performing best with temperatures/dewpoints this evening (the 
hrrr/rap and others are too cool)... so have bumped the 
temperature/dewpoint forecast toward its solution overnight. Given the 
anafrontal structure of this system... believe we'll see both 
insufficient moisture and inadequate ascent for precipitation over the 
southeast half of the County Warning Area until after sunrise... so have trimmed 
back or removed probability of precipitation there for the rest of the night... while 
maintaining a trend to high chance and likely probability of precipitation across the far 
north and northwest County Warning Area... as indicated by both high-res models and sref 
probabilities. No changes to the remainder of the forecast at this 
time given the dearth of new guidance. -Gih 


Previous discussion from 305 PM wednesday: 
Thursday and Thursday night: 


The GFS and NAM have come into better with the timing of the cold 
air surging south into the area...with the GFS trending towards the 
slower/less aggressive NAM. 


P-type: low-level cold air surging southward out of Virginia will 
initially support a changeover from rain to a freezing rain/sleet 
mix as middle-level cooling(strong warm nose)lags behind. Then as the 
middle-level cools and a substantial/deep low-level cold nose develops 
(-6c)...precipitation could end as mostly sleet with models indicating a 
10 to .20 inches of liquid equivalent centered over the central 
Piedmont-northern and central coastal plain between 05/00z and 
05/06z. Ice amounts are always difficult to ascertain anytime there 
is a long duration in the mixed sleet/freezing rain regions of the 
nomogram. Ultimately the predominate p-type in this event could 
largely be determined by precipitation rates...with more sleet in the 
heavier precipitation bands promoting enhanced cooling aloft. Could see as 
much as 0.10 to 0.15 of an inch of freezing rain along and north of 
Highway 64 is possible...with sleet amounts of around 0.50" 
possible. Any ice accrual will be confined mainly to elevated 
surfaces owing to warm pavement temperatures from todays +70 degree 
readings. 


Timing: using a blend of the GFS and NAM...the change-over from rain 
to freezing rain/sleet looks to occur between 21z near the Virginia 
border to 00z across the central Piedmont/coastal plain(roughly 
along and north of Highway 64). While the change-over should 
continue to surge southward into the sandhills/southern 
Piedmont/southern coastal plain between 00 to 06z...sufficient 
cooling to support frozen precipitation appears to short to allow any 
appreciable accrual before precipitation ends. 


Since any p-type concerns will be during late 2nd/early 3rd 
period...preference is to hold off on issuing any advisories at this 
time so that further model trends can be evaluated with the 00z/05 
model package. 


Clearing from northwest to southeast and intrusion of Arctic air into the area 
will support cold overnight lows in the 20s which will likely lead 
to black ice development across the area Thursday night/Friday 
morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for black ice 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
as of 305 PM Wednesday... 


Low level cold air advection Friday will result in another day of 
well below normal temperatures. Thicknesses average close to 50m below 
normal...suggestive of maximum temperatures close to 20 degrees below normal. 
With plenty of sun and an increasing sun angle should see temperatures 
recover at least 15-18 degrees from morning lows inspite of the low 
level cold air advection. Favor the cooler met guidance which supports maximum temperatures in 
the middle-upper 30s. 


Coldest night expected most locations Friday night as 850mb thermal 
trough crosses region in the evening and surface ridge settles directly 
overhead. Min temperatures 15-20 degrees from rdu and areas north and 
east...to the lowers 20s far west-SW. 


Milder conditions anticipated Saturday as surface ridge drifts slowly 
east. With plenty of dry air and a developing low level west-SW 
flow...should see a diurnal temperature recover of 30-35 degrees across the 
area. Maximum temperatures near 50 far NE to the middle 50s SW. Potential for maximum 
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer...as 850mb westerly flow has a tendency 
to warm US up greater than expected in these dry air masses. 


Saturday night...westerly flow aloft may filter some high clouds over the 
region but the lower levels will remain dry. A lingering light SW 
surface flow will aid to keep temperatures from free-falling after sunset. Min 
temperatures near 30 north to lower 30s south. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
as of 305 PM Wednesday... 


Moderating temperatures will continue into early next week as mild 
high pressure builds east across the southern Ohio Valley. 
Meanwhile...fast...confluent...near zonal flow aloft will maintain 
separation between the northern and southern streams...with the more 
moisture laden southern stream suppressed across the deep south. 
This will result in mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday. Highs 
Sunday will reach mainly middle 50s. On Monday...after a morning low 
around 40...highs will climb to near normal...within a degree or so 
of 60. 


Slow ejection of a southern stream short wave across the southern 
Continental U.S./Northern Gulf is expected early next week. As this wave moves 
east...the gradual deepening of a middle level trough over the Midwest 
will initially begin to bulge the southern stream northward into the 
South Atlantic states Monday night. Thus expect increasing middle/high 
cloudiness Monday night which will offset radiation to maintain 
highs of around 60 on Tuesday in a weak cad configuration despite 
the modestly building heights aloft. 


Have low confidence in the details in the longer range given poor 
model consensus as to when and where we might expect surface 
development and attendant moisture advection into the area. The GFS 
solution is much faster...with strong overrunning as early as 
Tuesday night...while the European model (ecmwf) delays development of a surface low 
until Thursday. At this point will maintain ongoing slight low 
chances of rain Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to middle 
60s as we wait for better model consensus. The high temperatures 
will be heavily dependent on the potential in-situ damming...and the 
earlier GFS solution would result in highs being considerably 
cooler...especially on Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/... 
as of 735 PM Wednesday... 


Mainly VFR conditions...in continued southwesterly flow ahead of an 
approaching cold front...will become MVFR-IFR from north to south 
with the passage of the cold front between 10-14z at northern taf 
sites...to between 15-19z at kfay. Two exceptions to the otherwise 
preceding VFR conditions will be a temporary MVFR ceiling at 
kint/kgso for a brief time this evening...and a medium chance of IFR 
visibility restrictions and/or ceilings at kfay overnight...where 
the combination of radiational cooling during times of lighter to 
occasionally near calm wind...with a relative maximum in surface 
dewpoints over southeast NC...will support the development of areas of 
fog/low stratus. 


Once surface winds lessen and quit gusting area-wide within the next 
couple of hours in association with the development of a nocturnal 
inversion...low level wind shear will also become probable owing to 
the development of a 40-50 knots low level jet just above the surface. 
The passage of the aforementioned surface cold front will end the 
threat of low level wind shear...and instead result in a strong Post- 
frontal northeasterly wind between 10-15 kts...with gusts around 20 
kts. 


Widespread rain and associated MVFR-IFR conditions trailing the 
passing cold front will continue throughout Thursday...before rain 
changes to sleet from north to south Thursday afternoon and evening. 


Outlook: after lingering light sleet and MVFR conditions 
krdu/kfay/krwi Thursday evening...persisting longest into Thursday night at 
kfay...VFR condition are anticipated for the next several days. 


&& 


Climate... 
rdu gso Fay 


03/06: record low maximum 32-1901 34-1960 34-1960 
min 11-1960 5-1960 19-1960 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...rah 
near term...Hartfield/cbl 
short term...wss 
long term...mlm 
aviation...rah 
climate...cbl 



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