Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 29°
  • Overcast
  • Wind: ESE 5 mph
  • Humidity: 23%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: -5°
  • Pressure: 30.46 in. -
  • Heat Index: 24

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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Monday
  • Ice Pellets
  • High: 37 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Ice Pellets
  • Tuesday
  • Rain
  • High: 57 °
  • Low: 36 °
  • Rain
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 56 °
  • Low: 32 °
  • Clear
  • Thursday
  • Clear
  • High: 52 °
  • Low: 31 °
  • Clear
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 56 °
  • Low: 43 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 4:04 PM EST on February 14, 2016

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday...
  • Tonight

    Cloudy. Scattered flurries this evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Not as cold with lows in the lower 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

  • Washingtons Birthday

    Freezing rain likely. Snow and sleet in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no additional snow and sleet accumulation. Total snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

  • Monday Night

    Rain. Not as cool with lows in the mid 30s. Temperature rising into the mid 40s after midnight. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

  • Tuesday

    Rain in the morning...then partly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times in the morning. Not as cool with highs in the mid 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday through Friday

    Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows in the lower 30s.

  • Friday Night through Sunday

    Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Winter Weather Advisory  Statement as of 3:53 PM EST on February 14, 2016


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
1 PM EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 1
PM EST Monday. This replaces the Winter Storm Watch.

* Locations... the eastern and southern Piedmont... the
sandhills... and the coastal plain of central North Carolina.

* Hazard types... precipitation will start out as mostly light snow
mixed with a little sleet tonight... trending to sleet then
freezing rain late tonight through early Monday morning... and
to just rain by early Monday afternoon.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation from a trace up to 1 inch...
along with around a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice.

* Timing... wintry precipitation is expected to start tonight...
and continue through Monday morning before it transitions to all
rain by early Monday afternoon.

* Impacts... travel may become difficult in this area tonight
through Monday morning.

* Winds... northeast 5 mph or less.

* Temperatures... 25 to 30... warming into the 40s late Monday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.








Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Shady Lawn Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 30.4 °F Dew Point: 7 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.49 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Hotelling Court, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 29.8 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 35% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.40 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Tenney Circle, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 34.0 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.43 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 34 °F Graphs

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 30.6 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Westminster Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 29.5 °F Dew Point: 7 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Bendenkamp, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:51 PM EST

Temperature: 30.2 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.51 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: The Oaks, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:53 PM EST

Temperature: 30.8 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Burning Tree Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 33.1 °F Dew Point: 11 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 29.5 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Stratford Glen, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 29.7 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.08 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: State Road 1777, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 30.0 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.34 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: NC Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 29.1 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 28.3 °F Dew Point: 1 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: NE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Alta Springs, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 33.4 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.54 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: Stony Hill Farms, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 29.1 °F Dew Point: 1 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.37 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Lewis Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:51 PM EST

Temperature: 32.7 °F Dew Point: 0 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: TCH Academy, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:47 PM EST

Temperature: 32.7 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.28 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

Location: RAWS, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:16 PM EST

Temperature: 29 °F Dew Point: -3 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: SE at 3 mph Pressure: 29.99 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: North Garrett Road, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 32.5 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.50 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: North Garrett Road, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 31.8 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.07 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Laurel Hills, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:46 PM EST

Temperature: 29.3 °F Dew Point: 0 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.26 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Hunter's Ridge Road, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 31.6 °F Dew Point: 8 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.45 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: North Garrett Road, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:51 PM EST

Temperature: 31.8 °F Dew Point: 8 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.58 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: North Garrett Road, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 30.9 °F Dew Point: 1 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.33 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Hideaway Drive, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:51 PM EST

Temperature: 31.8 °F Dew Point: 6 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.42 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Westglen, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 30.6 °F Dew Point: -1 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 29.0 °F Dew Point: 8 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: NE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.15 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Arrowhead, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:43 PM EST

Temperature: 32.0 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 27.6 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 30.4 °F Dew Point: -16 °F Humidity: 11% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.44 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge Drive, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 35.6 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.40 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 36 °F Graphs

Location: Amy Lane, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 27.8 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.46 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:56 PM EST

Temperature: 28.3 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: SE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 30.44 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 28 °F Graphs

Location: Stedman, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 32.0 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.17 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:50 PM EST

Temperature: 28.9 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.47 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 29 °F Graphs

Location: Winslow, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 5:51 PM EST

Temperature: 32.0 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.39 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Rockwood, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:55 PM EST

Temperature: 32.5 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.32 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 32 °F Graphs

Location: Fairfield, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:48 PM EST

Temperature: 30.7 °F Dew Point: 4 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: North at - Pressure: 30.27 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 31 °F Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:28 PM EST

Temperature: 30 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.48 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Windchill: 30 °F Graphs

Location: Fairfield-Sturbridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 5:43 PM EST

Temperature: 32.7 °F Dew Point: 2 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.20 in Hourly Precipitation: - Windchill: 33 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
335 PM EST sun Feb 14 2016 


Synopsis...Arctic high pressure will shift into New England while 
nosing into the area from the northeast tonight. A storm system will 
approach from the west tonight and move eastward across the region 
Monday into Tuesday... shifting to our northeast and away from the 
area late Tuesday. High pressure will gradually build in from the 
northwest Tuesday night through Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Tuesday/... 
as of 335 PM Sunday... 


..Winter Weather Advisory for all of central NC tonight through 
much of Monday... 


Overview: longwave troughing will continue to amplify along the miss 
valley tonight/Monday as northern stream energy drops into its base over the 
lower miss valley... culminating in a narrow deep shortwave trough 
taking on a slight positive tilt as it swings east-northeast through the 
Carolinas/Virginia late Monday night through Tuesday morning. At the surface... 
the polar high situated over the northeast and midatlantic states 
will push steadily northeast and out over the northwest Atlantic through 
Monday... while a coastal front forms along the Carolina coast 
extending back to developing low pressure over East Texas and la. This low 
will track east then NE... evolving into a subtle and closely-spaced 
Miller-b cyclogenesis configuration with the secondary low tracking 
along the foothills or western Piedmont Monday night... before moving 
quickly into the northeast states Tuesday morning... as a front sweeps 
east through central/eastern NC. While the surface high will have 
initially deposited plenty of cold stable air... the high itself 
will be transitory and the stable pool should eventually become 
vulnerable to the strengthening warm nose at 850-900 mb Monday 
afternoon and evening. 


Precipitation chances: at the beginning of the event... the 
processes to force ascent tonight into early Monday including DPVA 
and moist isentropic upglide are rather weak and focused primarily 
on western and northern portions of central NC where moisture will be deeper. 
We've already started to see returns on radar over our far western 
counties... but it will take a few hours to moisten the initially 
dry subcloud layer given the high dewpoint depressions... trimming 
the precipitation amounts at the start. Will trend probability of precipitation up to likely in the 
northwest and Virginia border sections with lower chance probability of precipitation to the south and 
east tonight... with generally light quantitative precipitation forecast. After the 925-850 mb warm 
frontal zone translates north-northeast through NC late tonight with subsequent 
partial drying aloft... we're likely to see a relative lull in 
precipitation Monday especially over the southern County Warning Area... with more patchy 
coverage and lighter amounts. The exception may be in the extreme 
eastern County Warning Area where better mass convergence along the inland-drifting 
coastal front may lead to focused higher coverage and intensity. By 
Monday evening/night... strong upper divergence (due to ideally 
juxtaposed polar and subtropical jets) and vigorous low level 
moisture transport east of the approaching low will strengthen deep 
layer lift... and will gradually ramp up probability of precipitation to categorical from 
west to east Monday night through Tuesday morning. 


Ptypes: using the top-down methodology with consideration of (a) the 
initially very cold/dense nature of the surface air mass... (b) the 
strengthening warm nose aloft... and (c) the strong low level warm 
advection and warm hydrometeors aloft that should dislodge/dissolve 
The Wedge air mass southeast to northwest Monday afternoon/evening... expect this to 
start as mostly light snow with perhaps patchy light sleet tonight 
across the northern and western County Warning Area... followed by a transition from south-southeast to 
north-northwest to freezing rain/sleet then to all rain... with the far northwest 
counties including The Triad the last to see an end to the wintry 
precipitation by middle evening Monday. The latest model timing and vertical 
thermal structure continues to suggest a slightly longer-lasting and 
more areally expansive icing threat than what was indicated a couple 
of days ago. Latest precipitation amounts indicate glaze accrual from a 
trace to a few hundredths of an inch over nearly all of central 
NC... with storm total snowfall of a tenth to half inch areawide 
except for 1-2" roughly along and north of a line from Lexington to 
Durham to Louisburg to Scotland Neck. All of this should be quickly 
swept away by moderate to potentially heavy rainfall starting Monday 
night. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for all of central NC... 
lasting from midnight tonight to 1 PM Monday except from 7 PM tonight 
to 9 PM Monday in the northwest County Warning Area where wintry precipitation will be 
longer lasting. 


Precipitation totals: storm total liquid quantitative precipitation forecast is expected to be 1 to around 
1 1/2" with locally higher amounts possible... given the high water 
content and strong lift Monday night/Tuesday morning. Based on the 
antecedent conditions and with several rivers and creeks running 
high... a Flood Watch may be needed for some portion of the area for 
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However... a couple of models including 
the GFS are hinting at enhanced rainfall near the Carolina coast 
with focused low level mass convergence... and if this occurs it 
could cut down a bit on total rainfall Monday night/Tuesday morning. 


Storm potential: while lapse rates will likely be marginal (nearing 
6.5 c/km Tuesday mainly in the east) with weak instability... the 
favorable kinematics and the strong and focused lift with this 
system with warming low levels especially in the sandhills and 
coastal plain may support a few lightning strikes late Monday night 
into Tuesday morning. Even outside of any isolated convection... we 
should see a few hours of good low level mixing Tuesday which could 
yield occasional wind gusts over 20 miles per hour. 


Temps: expect lows tonight of 22-27. Temperatures should slowly rise Monday 
through Monday night... reaching the low 30s northwest to middle 40s southeast late 
Monday... rising to near 40 northwest to lower 50s southeast Monday night... and peaking 
around 50 to the lower 60s Tuesday with partial clearing in the 
afternoon. -Gih 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday night/... 
as of 335 PM Sunday... 


A strong trailing vorticity maximum... close on the heels of our Tuesday- 
morning wave... will swing through Kentucky/Tennessee early Tuesday evening and 
through NC/Virginia Tuesday night... accompanied by a surface low and trailing 
secondary cold front which will usher in high pressure as we head 
into midweek. Forecast soundings are fairly moisture starved... 
however given a disturbance this potent... moisture could deepen 
enough to squeeze out a quick sprinkle mainly across the northwest County Warning Area. 
Otherwise... skies will be generally partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. - 
Gih/np 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
as of 200 PM Sunday... 


Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will return for the 2nd half 
of the work week as the longwave trough over eastern North America 
moves east and a more zonal flow develops in its wake. Although i'd 
be remiss if I didn't point out that two very weak short waves are 
prognosticated to cross our area during this time...one Wednesday night and 
another late in the day Friday...but both of these should have 
little impact on our weather aside from a brief increase in clouds. 
The next more substantial short wave is prognosticated to move across our 
area late in the weekend...but it will definitely be warm enough for 
any precipitation with this system to be all rain. In fact...temperatures this 
weekend are expected to climb about 10 degree above normal. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Thursday/... 
as of 1255 PM Sunday... 


A period of wintry weather is expected starting this evening and 
lasting through middle evening Monday... mainly affecting northern taf 
sites (int/gso/rdu/rwi)... although accrual amounts should be fairly 
light at rdu/rwi with only trace amounts at Fay. 


VFR conditions hold at all taf sites currently. Clouds will thicken 
this evening but remain VFR through 03z. After this time... between 
03z and 08z... ceilings will lower to MVFR from southeast to northwest 
(deteriorating first at Fay then at rdu/rwi and finally at int/gso). 
During this period... areas of precipitation will spread in mainly 
at int/gso... with much more light and patchy precipitation at rdu/rwi/Fay. 
Initial precipitation type will be mostly snow or snow/sleet tonight... 
changing to mostly freezing rain from southeast to northwest (first changing at 
Fay then at rwi-rdu-gso-int in that order) Monday morning through early 
afternoon. 


Looking beyond 18z Monday... areas of precipitation should be all rain at 
rwi/Fay by 18z... at rdu by 21z... and at gso/int by 02z (mid 
evening mon). Ceilings Monday afternoon will drop to mainly IFR/LIFR with 
MVFR to IFR visibilities... holding through midday Tuesday with a period of 
widespread heavy rain expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning... 
moving west to east. An isolated storm or two is possible early Tuesday 
morning at rwi/Fay. VFR conditions are expected to return Tuesday 
afternoon with a period of gusty winds from the west. VFR conditions 
will then dominate through Friday as high pressure builds in. -Gih 


&& 


Climate... 


Here are the record lows and record low maximum temperatures for 
Feb 14th. 




Rec yr rec yr 
low low maximum 
---------------------------------------------- 
gso: 
02/14 6 1905 22 1914 


Rdu: 
02/14 -2 1899 27 1916 


Fay: 
02/14 12 1968 33 1916 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 


Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST 
Monday for ncz008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. 
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM EST 
Monday for ncz007-021>023-038-039. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Hartfield 
near term...Hartfield 
short term...Hartfield/np 
long term...np 
aviation...Hartfield 
climate...rah 



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