Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 84°
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wind: Variable 6 mph
  • Humidity: 63%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 70°
  • Pressure: 29.88 in. 0
  • Heat Index: 88

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Next 12 Hours

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2  am
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Thunderstorm
T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
82°
79°
77°
72°
72°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Thursday
  • Thunderstorm
  • High: 91 °
  • Low: 68 °
  • T-Storms
  • Friday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 86 °
  • Low: 68 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 90 °
  • Low: 75 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 77 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 88 °
  • Low: 66 °
  • Chance of T-Storms

Forecast for Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on July 24, 2014

  • Thursday

    Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

  • Thursday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 68F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 75F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast. High of 93F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 77F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 88F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 66F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 63F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Mostly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 79F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 64F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 77F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 79F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Saturday Night

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Sunday

    Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 66F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Cosgrove Hill, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 88.3 °F Dew Point: 76 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: Smith Middle School, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 87.7 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 63% Wind: WSW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: Carrboro Elementary, Carrboro, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 88.2 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: NNW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: Hope Valley, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:27 PM EDT

Temperature: 92.1 °F Dew Point: 77 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: SSE at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Duke Forest, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:41 PM EDT

Temperature: 85.0 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: WSW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.50 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Edwards Pond, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 86.1 °F Dew Point: 76 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: Chancellors Ridge, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 86.9 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Stoneycreek Neighborhood, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 85.3 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: NW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 94 °F Graphs

Location: Lakewood, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 84.6 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 93 °F Graphs

Location: Lystra Estates, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 87.8 °F Dew Point: 78 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: North at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: 510sRus@ Pinedale Dr, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 85.1 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 94 °F Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Hillsborough NC US, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 11:47 AM EDT

Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 85% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Trinity Park, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 88.3 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Briar Chapel, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:32 PM EDT

Temperature: 87.7 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest V58A Pittsboro NC US USARRAY, Bynum, NC

Updated: 12:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 83 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: SSW at 2 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Frosty Meadow, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 88.6 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Cane Creek Vista, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:28 PM EDT

Temperature: 88.3 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: WSW at 4.7 mph Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Cane Creek View, Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 89.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: West at 6.3 mph Pressure: 29.29 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Churton Grove, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 84.1 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: NNE at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 91 °F Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 89.0 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.34 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 98 °F Graphs

Location: Cary Park, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 91.3 °F Dew Point: 73 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: River Road Pittsboro, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:41 PM EDT

Temperature: 85.2 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: SW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 93 °F Graphs

Location: NE Durham County, (DW), Durham, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 83.2 °F Dew Point: 72 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Chapel Hill, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 87.3 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 97 °F Graphs

Location: Twin Lakes, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:29 PM EDT

Temperature: 89.1 °F Dew Point: 76 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: WSW at 3.2 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 100 °F Graphs

Location: Swann's Mill, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:36 PM EDT

Temperature: 90.0 °F Dew Point: 77 °F Humidity: 66% Wind: South at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 103 °F Graphs

Location: Jordan Lake, Pittsboro, NC

Updated: 1:40 PM EDT

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 77 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: SSE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 94 °F Graphs

Location: Cascades, Hillsborough, NC

Updated: 1:39 PM EDT

Temperature: 81.1 °F Dew Point: 75 °F Humidity: 83% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Overlook, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:34 PM EDT

Temperature: 89.3 °F Dew Point: 76 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 101 °F Graphs

Location: Calander Estates, Durham, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 80.8 °F Dew Point: 74 °F Humidity: 80% Wind: NW at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.21 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Reserve, Cary, NC

Updated: 1:42 PM EDT

Temperature: 83.8 °F Dew Point: 76 °F Humidity: 78% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 93 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
1146 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will move southward into southern Virginia late this 
afternoon...progress into central North Carolina tonight...then 
stall near the South Carolina border on Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 1145 am Thursday... 


Though middle-level lapse rates remain weak at ~5.5 c/km...a very 
moist boundary layer along with strong insolation will yield 
moderate diurnal destabilization today with MLCAPE values 
generally ranging from 1000-2000 j/kg...highest in the east where 
low-level moisture and sunshine are most abundant and lowest west. 
Moderate instability and little or no cin has already allowed 
convection to develop in vicinity of the pre-frontal surface trough 
over the coastal plain as of 15z...perhaps aided by the right 
entrance region of an 300 mb jet over NC/VA. Morning convection has 
turned the pre-frontal trough into an effective frontal zone over 
central NC...oriented roughly west-east along or near Highway 64... 
with temperatures in the middle/upper 70s in the northern Piedmont to 
middle/upper 80s in the sandhills and southeast coastal plain. The presence 
of the aforementioned 'effective front' introduces additional 
uncertainty to the convective forecast through this evening. 


With the above in mind...confidence is too low to provide more 
specific details about convective coverage and evolution this 
aft/eve. However...forecast reasoning remains the same. Given cyclonic 
flow aloft (cyclonic shear vorticity and DPVA associated/west small 
amplitude shortwaves)...a surface-925 mb trough sinking southward 
into the region near peak heating...abundant moisture...and 
moderate instability...expect above normal chances for convection 
through midnight...with convection possibly persisting through 
sunrise Friday morning south and east of the Triangle. 


Severe threat: deep layer shear on the order of 25-35 knots will 
support multicell clusters and perhaps an isolated supercell this 
aft/eve. Expect a potential for a few severe storms with a primary 
threat of damaging winds...primarily south of Highway 64 where dcape 
values begin to increase above 500 j/kg...approaching 1000 j/kg 
near the SC border. Dime to quarter size hail will also be 
possible with any robust updrafts. Though weak middle-level lapse 
rates will reduce the potential for hail > 1.00 in...large hail up 
to the size of golfballs would be possible in any robust updraft 
that acquires rotation...especially south of Highway 64 where MLCAPE values 
will approach 2000-2500 j/kg during peak heating. -Vincent 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Friday night/... 
as of 320 am Thursday... 


For Friday/Friday night: little changed needed to existing forecast. Still 
expect the front to hang up across the southeast County Warning Area and along the 
central/western NC/SC border... as the 850 mb trough holds to its northwest 
across far northern NC. This will keep enough low level moisture which... 
in conjunction with lingering precipitable water values near 1 inch... necessitates 
a mention of isolated to scattered showers and storms over the far 
southeast County Warning Area... focused on the typical afternoon through early evening 
time frame. Much lower precipitable water over the remainder of the County Warning Area and modest 
rise in heights as the middle level trough weakens and starts to pull 
away will lead to mainly dry weather elsewhere... although one last 
shot of DPVA through the exiting trough base will delay the most 
substantial northwest-to-se clearing until late in the day. Highs 85-90... 
with thicknesses slipping to 10-15 M below normal. Lows 65-71. -Gih 


Sat and Sat night: the remnant front from early in the period will 
become increasingly diffuse as it retreats north across the Middle 
Atlantic States on Sat...with a primary impact for central NC being 
the development of a warming southerly flow - high temperatures 
generally between 89 and 93 degrees. Aloft...model guidance is in 
good agreement regarding the progression of a middle level trough from 
the appalachian spine Sat morning to the coast by evening...but 
associated forecast vertical motion with this feature is weak...and 
NAM forecast bufr soundings are an unstable and uncapped outlier 
relative to the GFS and sref ensemble mean. The NAM quantitative precipitation forecast maximum from 
southeast Virginia through central NC is also an outlier relative to other 
guidance...which otherwise confines any showers/storms to the sea 
breeze. Will consequently maintain just a slight chance pop over the 
southern and central coastal plain...where weak lift ahead of the 
aforementioned trough aloft will be diurnally maximized and 
coincident with low level forcing in vicinity of the sea-breeze/subsequent 
outflow during the middle-late afternoon. 


Shortwave ridging will briefly follow for Sat night...with dry 
conditions and lows mainly in the lower 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
as of 335 am Thursday... 


The medium range will be characterized by the development of another 
unseasonably high amplitude trough aloft from southeastern Canada 
into the eastern US...with an associated negative height of nearly 3 
Standard deviations below average from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio 
Valley to the central Appalachians. Precipitation chances during the 
period will be highest Sun night-Mon...as the trough amplifies 
southeastward and spreads the associated middle level height falls and 
underlying low level frontal zone across NC. 


In fact...the day Sunday should be mainly dry...and hot as the middle 
level ridge over the desert SW and plains builds briefly east in 
advance of the amplifying trough aloft. 850 mb temperatures are 
forecast to surge...albeit briefly...into the 22-24 degree range 
over the Carolinas...supportive of high temperatures solidly in the 
middle 90s. Upstream pre-frontal convection and associated outflow 
will then likely drift...in a gradually weakening state owing to 
nocturnal cooling...into the northern and western Piedmont during 
the evening and early nighttime hours. 


The pattern on the synoptic scale...characterized by the approaching 
strong trough and downstream jet entrance divergence aloft...and low 
level frontal forcing...favors considerable thunderstorm coverage 
Monday...including some severe owing to unseasonably strong middle level 
flow on the order of 40-50 kts. However...predictability associated 
with mesoscale influences (ie. Outflow and cloud cover) from earlier 
convection Sun night complicate the forecast so probability of 
precipitation will be kept in the high chance range for now...with 
the expectation that these probabilities will be increased over at 
least a portion of the forecast area (likely the southeast half). 
The middle of the week should be dry...and cooler...as Post-frontal 
high pressure builds into the central Appalachians...and 
precipitable water values fall below an inch over central NC. Highs 
and lows only in the lower to middle 80s and lower to middle 
60s...respectively...Tue-Wed. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
as of 1145 am Thursday... 


Areas of MVFR ceilings associated with a very moist low-level 
airmass will persist into early/middle afternoon over central NC... 
especially in or near locations affected by convection. Scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely effect all 
terminals for a period of at least several hours this afternoon 
through tonight as a cold front moves southward into the area. 
Winds will become variable as the front approaches from the north 
this after/evening and will remain light at 5-10 knots (outside of 
convection). 


Looking ahead: at this time...VFR conditions are expected on 
Friday as the front stalls out just S/southeast of central NC...though 
some of the latest model guidance suggests that the front may 
remain close enough for sub-VFR ceilings and/or a potential for 
showers and thunderstorms to persist. A persistent pattern of 
troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. Will result in an above normal 
chance for convection through early next week...with numerous 
thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening hours each 
day. -Vincent 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Vincent 
near term...Vincent 
short term...Hartfield/mws 
long term...mws 
aviation...Vincent 






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