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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 50 °
• T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 54 °
• T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 43 °
• Rain Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Bismarck ND 
119 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Update... 
issued at 114 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Update mainly to refine probability of precipitation for higher coverage of storms 
overnight over most of the forecast area. The northern half should 
become the focus for the bulk of the showers and storms toward 
daybreak. Convective intensity has been downward over the past 
couple of hours...and the threat for additional severe storms is 
low. However...stronger storms could dump a quick inch of rain and 
cause ponding water. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 258 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013 


The main short term focus is precipitation through Saturday. 


Precipitation chances have generally been lowered from continuity 
based on model consensus and coordination with surrounding 
offices. They now reflect the best chances for showers and 
thunderstorms. Unfortunately...the available 12 UTC through 18 UTC 
guidance disagrees with timing and coverage across much of the 
state for this afternoon and tonight...but there is general 
agreement that an area of convection will develop over 
southeastern Montana this afternoon and move east-northeast. 


Water vapor satellite imagery indicates the leading edge of the 
next middle level shortwave will nose into southwestern North Dakota 
around 23 UTC. While that will likely be the best chance for 
stronger thunderstorms...current radar confirms that showers ahead 
of that feature will also spread across the Missouri slope this 
afternoon...though no lightening has been observed there. Look 
for this trend to continue and fill in through the afternoon as 
more favorable dynamic forcing moves into the region. 


There is a Storm Prediction Center slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday 
afternoon associated with a deepening surface low. North Dakota 
looks to be on the north side of the warm front. While low-level 
winds will be backed...forecast cloud cover justified model 
soundings not favorable for surface-based convection. Thus...the 
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds unless clearing 
moves into south central North Dakota. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 258 PM CDT Friday may 17 2013 


The main forecast highlight for the extended period continues to be 
the moderate to heavy rain event through early Tuesday. 


The 12z deterministic model suite is in good agreement early in the 
extended period before solutions diverge in regards of the formation 
and movement of the upper level low across the northern plains 
Monday through Wednesday. A broad western Continental U.S. Upper level trough 
is prognosticated to push east and over the plains Saturday and 
Sunday...close off over the northern and Central Plains late Sunday 
and Monday...and then slowly push east and weaken through Thursday. 
The 12z GFS remains the progressive solution moving and weakening 
the closed off low away from the Dakotas by Wednesday...while the 
12z European model (ecmwf)/Gem keeps it meandering over the Dakotas before pushing 
east and weakening by late next week. Meanwhile...a Rex blocking 
pattern over northern America will begin to set up as upper level 
ridging takes place north of the aforementioned closed off low and 
another trough drops south from the northeastern Pacific. 


As a result in the differences in the positioning and movement of the 
aforementioned low...placement and amount of precipitation differ 
between the GFS and the Gem/European model (ecmwf) solutions...most notably on Monday 
and Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf)/Gem continue chances for precipitation on 
these days as the low hovers overhead...while the GFS keeps most of 
the north and west dry...with precipitation chances for the 
southeast part of the state. Have decided to stick close to wpc 
guidance for quantitative precipitation forecast...which keeps the James River Valley on track for 
one to two inches of rainfall from Saturday evening through 
Tuesday...with lesser amounts further northwest. In regards to any 
potential flooding issues...conditions are such that soils can 
absorb significant rainfall. Thus...significant rises on main Stem 
rivers such as the Souris and James are not expected. 
However...enhanced rainfall rates or several rounds of storms could 
produce localized runoff...leading to rises on small creeks and 
streams...and possibly flash flooding. 


Precipitation chances will begin to diminish late Tuesday and into 
Wednesday as dry and seasonable conditions take over....with an 
additional chance for showers possibly Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1252 am CDT Sat may 18 2013 


Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread north and impact 
all taf sites overnight. Coverage of storms is expected to be 
rather limited during the morning hours Saturday...then increase 
again Saturday afternoon and evening with mainly MVFR ceilings 
and/or visibilities developing. 


&& 


Bis watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...rk 
short term...scheck 
long term...lth 
aviation...rk