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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 41 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
1132 PM MDT Sat may 18 2013 


Aviation... 
06z taf cycle 
VFR conditions forecast to persist through the taf period with 
gusty winds being the main aviation weather concern. A westerly 
low level flow will strengthen Sunday...with gusts to between 
35-40kts at klvs and ktcc. Those type of gusts will also be 
possible with virga showers tonight and again Sunday afternoon. 
Mountain obscurations are not expected with high cloud bases 
forecast. 


11 


&& 


Previous discussion...307 PM MDT Sat may 18 2013... 
definitely more cumulus this afternoon across the state...as opposed to 
yesterday. Virga has been prominent across the southwest/central 
areas this afternoon...but not much precipitation has actually 
reached the ground. There has been quite a bit of lightning from southeast 
Utah up toward north central Colorado associated with some 
lift/instability ahead of the upper level trough. The trough will 
continue to slide east tonight...and its expected that some 
showers/storms will work into northwest nm...but still looking for 
more sprinkles with gusty winds...gusts near/over 50 miles per hour 
possible...than any storm with significant precipitation. 


Otherwise...gusty winds have already been the story today with 
strong mixing and a healthy surface pressure gradient. Critical fire 
weather conditions will be the main story for the next few 
days...more on that below. 


Temperatures will once again be tricky tonight. Cloud cover and any 
precipitation should largely diminish by midnight...plus Pacific front will 
have moved through the area...but locally breezy conditions may keep 
temperatures elevated. Evening crew will need to monitor trends. 


Second lobe of energy will swing into The Four Corners area Sunday 
night and across northern nm on Monday. A few models showing this 
trough to actually close off for a short time. Expanded probability of precipitation just a 
tad more over the jemez and southern sangres...but just isolated at 
best. This trough will usher in yet another Pacific front and gusty 
winds. Temperatures sun-Tuesday look to generally trend downward to near 
or even below normal. 


Back door front will come down the plains Monday night...and low 
level moisture is expected to increase behind it. This may help 
generate a few storms over the sangre Delaware cristos. Otherwise... 
shortwave ridging will be on tap as we go into Wednesday. Temperatures will 
correspondingly get a big boost on Wednesday areawide. 


Models continue to have trouble resolving where the moisture will 
set up across the eastern plains late in the week and over the week. 
The GFS continues to suffer from convective feedback issues...and 
interestingly...the European model (ecmwf) bring the low level moisture much further 
westward than at this time yesterday. Stay tuned. 


34 


Fire weather... 
..extended period of critical fire weather through Monday... 


Breezy to windy conditions as expected this afternoon and they will 
continue through the evening. Relative humidity values dropping into the single 
digits over much of the forecast area. Will continue with the red 
flag warning through 9 PM MDT for east...central and southwest 
zones. Isolated to locally scattered showers and a handful of 
thunderstorms...mostly of the dry variety...will be found over the 
northwest and north central areas...mainly over the higher terrain. 
Beware of potential strong and erratic wind gusts up to 55 miles per hour. Relative humidity 
recovery mostly fair tonight except poor across the east Central 
Plains. 


Sunday to be fairly close to todays weather parameters...although 
temperatures will be lower in the north and east and relative humidity values a 
little higher. Wind speeds will be a little higher across the east. 
Current red flag warning looks good. Again expecting several hours 
of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Rio 
Grande Valley and from east slopes Central Mountain chain eastward. 
Thunderstorm coverage is a little less and shifted farther to east. 
Mixing heights lower some on Sunday but still portrayed to be above 
normal for this time of year with excellent vent rates. Mostly fair 
relative humidity recoveries Sunday night. 


Monday still brings critical fire weather concerns for portions of 
the Rio Grand Valley east to the Texas border. Daytime highs will 
trend a bit lower all areas. With these cooler temperatures the risk 
of widespread significant fire weather concerns is less...especially 
in the northeast plains and western high terrain. Will not include 
these zones in a Fire Weather Watch for Monday. Included zones will 
be 106...107 and 108. Any precipitation will be confined to the 
northern tier of zones. Min relative humidity values from 9 to 15 in the watch 
area...teens through 20s elsewhere. Continued excellent ventilation 
rates. Back door cold front to slide down the eastern plains late 
Monday into Tuesday morning...bringing some increase in dewpoints 
in its wake. 


Still indications are that the wind will ease off some on Tuesday. 
No significant precipitation is expected. By middle week models are 
hinting at a deep upper level low pressure system over the Pacific 
northwest making its way ever so slowly south. Weak ridging on Wednesday 
will give way to some increase in southwest flow aloft. But at this 
point winds do not look strong enough to produce any critical fire 
weather conditions late next week. Instead we could be looking at 
a dry line setting up across the eastern plains later next week 
right through next weekend. 


Chj 


Aviation... 
18z taf cycle 
scattered to widely scattered high based -shra and a few -tsra to develop mainly 
north of a line from Glenwood to cqc this afternoon under approaching 
cooler air aloft. Ceilings should remain VFR. Convection...especially 
stronger cells...likely to produce brief and localized downburst 
gusts between 35 and 50 kts. Best chances to experience strong 
wind gusts are at fmn...gup and saf. Cannot rule out at abq and 
lvs. Surface pressure gradient and strong vertical mixing will create 
non convective southwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts in most tafs 
for the afternoon. Visibilities locally reduced in blowing dust in 
stronger gusts...but not included in any tafs. Winds decreasing 
after 01z or 02z this evening...then increase by 15z Sunday. 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning from 10 am to 9 PM MDT Sunday for the following 
zones...nmz103-104-106>108. 


Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for 
the following zones...nmz106>108. 


&& 


$$ 


33