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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 54 °
• Rain Showers

• Monday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 57 °
• Thunderstorm

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 55 °
• Fog

• Thursday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
417 PM EDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
a warm front will cross the area overnight with showers...and then 
stall in the vicinity of southern New England through Monday 
night. The front will move through southern New England Tuesday. 
Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are anticipated Tuesday 
through Thursday. A cooler and less humid air mass is expected for the 
coming weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
band of warm advection showers continue to move east through the 
region this afternoon. Currently...this band is lined from SW New Hampshire 
into southern Rhode Island...and making slow progression to the east. The primary 
region for the slow movement east has been the near 15-20f dewpoint 
depression which has been difficult to overcome. All 
soundings...including the laps in the east...show the column moisture 
loading from the top down through the evening...so suspect these 
-shra will be everywhere by the time the sun sets. 


The surface warm front associated with these -shra is currently 
sliding in from the west...so expect that the threat for -shra will 
linger well into the overnight hours as this front makes its slow 
passage. Not expecting much in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast with this but most 
locations have damp ground by daybreak. The added moisture in the 
column /soundings suggest 1.0-1.5 inches precipitable water by 12z/ will lead to 
a fair amount of clouds and fog after the -shra come to an end 
during the early morning hours. Low confidence in widespread dense 
fog...but a few spots may dip to near 1/4 mile or less at times. 


The warm front will stall somewhere in the vicinity of New Hampshire by the 
early morning hours...so suspect that much of southern New England will 
be in the warm sector by 12z. Also...with some weak middle level 
ridging within this warm sector...could actually see some breaks 
of early Morning Sun especially away from the S and east coasts where 
stratus lingers. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/... 
tomorrow... 
surface warm front remains entrenched across New Hampshire and central New 
England through much of the day...allowing southern New England into 
the warm sector. With the actual boundary to the north...after some 
early morning fog/stratus is allowed to burn off...some breaks of 
sun are possible through about middle day. This will have to be 
monitored since within the warm sector surface dewpoints should reach 
+15-18c and temperatures increasing to the upper 70s to around 80f in 
spots especially if the sun does shine through. While forcing 
mechanisms are minimal at best...guidance does suggest the front 
makes a slow slide to the S during the day. With warm-humid 
airmass in place...surface Li values dip to 0 to -3 with about 
500-1000 j/kg of sb cape to work with. Therefore...may see a 
threat for some daytime T-storms especially away from the S 
coast...where southerly marine flow and early day stratus will keep 
temperatures down...increasing stability. Given this...have some chance 
probability of precipitation for thunder in the interior during the afternoon hours. Shear 
is minimal given the weak ridging flow aloft...and normalized cape 
is quite low suggesting skinny profile...so heavy rain appears to 
be the primary threat with any storms and will include that with 
weather for this update. 


Monday night... 
warm front continues slow migration over southern New England through 
the overnight hours...but will likely only hang somewhere through 
central portions of the County Warning Area by 12z Tuesday. Therefore...with diurnal 
heating early...may see lingering -shra/thunderstorms into the evening 
hours until the column is able to stabilize. With some drier air 
filtering behind the front to the north...may actually see precipitation come 
to an end during the overnight hours. However...with high dewpoint air 
hanging in the warm sector near the S coast...a return to 
fog/stratus is likely once again. Expect that overnight mins will 
remain in the upper 50s to low 60s with a fair amount of cloud 
cover even if the precipitation does completely cease. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
highlights... 
* warm front moves through southern New England Tuesday 
* scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday-Thursday 
* cooler...less humid for the weekend 


Models are in decent agreement through much of the long term. There 
are some timing discrepancies throughout the long term between the 
European model (ecmwf) and the GFS...as well as the NAM Tuesday. The NAM is quicker than 
either the European model (ecmwf) or GFS with a warm front moving north through the 
region Tuesday. The GFS then whisks along and brings low pressure 
through Quebec more quickly Wednesday with a cold front moving through 
southern New England sooner on Thursday than the European model (ecmwf). However...the 
overall synoptic pattern is fairly well in line throughout the 
period. Generally expecting a more unsettled but warmer pattern 
through the work week...with quieter but cooler weather Friday and 
into the weekend. 


Tuesday...high pressure moves offshore as low pressure moves into 
the Great Lakes bringing a front northward across southern New 
England. Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered to 
widespread showers to occur with the warm front. There is enough 
instability indicated by the models that there will likely be some 
scattered thunderstorms as well. With the warm front across the 
area...could see some variability in temperatures with lower temperatures 
north of the front and warmer...more humid air south of the front. 
Looking at high temperatures a few degrees above normal...used a blend of 
guidance for the temperatures. 


Wednesday and Thursday...there are some timing questions here 
regarding the low pressure system moving through southern Canada and 
the accompanying cold front that will move through southern New 
England. Neither the GFS nor the European model (ecmwf) have the cold front moving 
through southern New England until after midnight Thursday night. 
However...the differences in the position and path of the low 
pressure could impact the amount of clouds as well as the best place 
for showers and thunderstorms across the region. For now have opted 
for high end chance probability of precipitation with slight chance to chance thunder pretty 
much across the board. Instability parameters are such that expect 
thunder to be fairly widespread. 


Friday...as mentioned above...the cold front will move through 
southern New England sometime on Friday...with the GFS bringing it 
through the area between midnight and 6 am and the European model (ecmwf) bringing it 
through about midday. The timing of this front will have a large 
impact on the weather as mostly cloudy skies and warmer...more humid 
air can be found ahead of the front while clearing skies and 
cooler...less humid air will move in behind the front. If this 
occurs during the early morning...high temperatures will be lower 
but the area will see more sun...while if it doesn/T occur until 
midday could see warmer highs but less sun. 


Saturday and Sunday...with high pressure dominant over southern New 
England...expect a pleasant weekend with high temperatures a few 
degrees below normal and sunny skies. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


High confidence through the afternoon...lower confidence in timing 
of MVFR/IFR during the overnight hours. 


Mainly VFR save for in an area of -shra in western Massachusetts and central CT. 
This band of -shra and MVFR ceilings will gradually shift to the east 
into the evening. Not confident in exact timing...but the taf 
trend represents the rough timing of both -shra onset and MVFR. 
May see some MVFR/IFR fog as the -shra moves out after 06z at many 
of the terminals. Some improvement to VFR is possible early 
Monday...especially away from the S coastal terminals. An isolated 
thunderstorm is also possible overnight...and again during the 
afternoon Monday. 


Kbos terminal...overall high confidence in the taf trends...but 
lower confidence in exact timing. Sea breeze continues into early 
evening hours...with the possibility of some broken low stratus. 
Expect MVFR in -shra and fog during the overnight hours with some 
improvement Monday morning. Low probability of an isolated rumble of 
thunder tonight and again tomorrow afternoon. 


Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf. MVFR will likely 
dominate into the overnight hours...with some improvement 
following some -shra/fog overnight. The best chance for MVFR will 
be during the morning Monday. Low probability of an isolated T-storm 
overnight and again Monday. 


Outlook...Tuesday through Friday... 


Tuesday through Thursday night...low to moderate confidence. Very 
unsettled pattern with variability between VFR conditions and 
MVFR/IFR conditions in shra/tsra/fog. 


Friday...moderate confidence. Conditions should improve to VFR from 
west to east as cold front moves through region. 


&& 


Marine... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low...less than 30 percent. 
Moderate...30 to 60 percent. 
High...greater than 60 percent. 


High confidence through Monday night. 


A warm front crosses the waters tonight with a mix of showers and 
potentially dense fog /particularly over the southern waters/ which 
will reduce visibilities at times. The front stalls north of the 
waters during the day Monday. 


Winds are expected to remain below small craft thresholds through 
the period. However...with long-fetch and persistent S flow...a 
S-SW swell will build during the overnight hours on S coastal 
waters...reaching 5-7 feet at times. This swell is expected to 
linger until Monday night. Therefore...Small Craft Advisory for seas 
remains in place. 


Outlook...Tuesday through Friday... 


Tuesday...winds and seas remain below 5 feet. Visibility may be 
limited at times in isolated showers and fog. 


Wednesday...seas increase as high pressure moves away from the 
waters. Southerly winds gust to near 25 kts. Small Craft Advisory will be necessary 
for seas if not winds as well. Visibility may be limited at times 
in scattered showers and thunderstorms. 


Thursday...seas remain above 5 feet as low pressure moves into the 
Maritimes and a cold front approaches the waters. Southerly winds 
gust to near 25 kts. Small Craft Advisory will be necessary for seas if not winds as 
well. Visibility may be limited at times in scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Winds increase overnight with approaching cold front. 


Friday...seas begin to diminish as high pressure builds over the 
waters. Winds increase to 25 to 30kts with cold frontal passage. 
Winds should be out of the south ahead of the front...shifting to 
the northwest behind the front. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 am Monday to 2 
am EDT Tuesday for anz233>235-237. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 am Monday to 8 
am EDT Tuesday for anz254-255. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from midnight tonight 
to 8 am EDT Tuesday for anz256. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...doody/rlg 
near term...doody 
short term...doody 
long term...rlg 
aviation...doody/rlg 
marine...doody/rlg