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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 43 °
• Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 40 °
• Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 38 °
• Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 40 °
• Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 40 °
• Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Seattle Washington 
911 PM PST Sat Jan 28 2012 


Synopsis...a front will bring rain and wind tonight and Sunday. A 
second frontal system will bring rain around Tuesday. High pressure 
will bring drier weather toward the end of the week. 


&& 


Short term...no changes from the current forecast. 


Rain will increase tonight as a cold front over b.C. Shifts farther 
S/southeast into western Washington. The radar composite already shows light rain 
over the northern olympic peninsula and north interior that will 
spread south as the night continues. Models still show the heaviest 
quantitative precipitation forecast bullseye over the north Cascades where a Winter Weather Advisory 
is in effect. Latest Washington dot reports show freezing rain at Stevens 
Pass but temperatures are warming up as the winds become westerly. 


Showers will continue on Sunday as a shortwave trough /near 140w/ 
moves inland. However...the central sound will see some shadowing 
with westerly downslope flow off the Olympics. A few inches of 
precipitation over the Olympics will force rises on the Skokomish River in 
Mason County...possibly up to flood stage. A Flood Watch remains in 
effect for Mason County - see the hydrology discussion below. 
Showers will taper down late Sun night as the trough exits. 


The flow will remain zonal on Monday with isolated to scattered 
showers mainly affecting the mountains. Another upper level trough 
will move in on Tuesday bringing more rain to the region. 33 


Long term...previous discussion...long range models are in pretty 
good agreement showing decreasing showers Wednesday and then dry 
weather Thursday through Saturday with an upper level ridge in 
control. Probability of precipitation for this time frame have been adjusted down into the 
chance category for now. If future models runs remain 
consistent...all mention of rain can probably be removed from the 
forecast. Schneider 


&& 


Hydrology...a frontal system will bring between 1.5 and 3.5 inches 
of rain to the mountains tonight through Sunday night. At the same 
time...snow levels will rise to between 6000 and 7000 feet over much 
of the area tonight and Sunday before falling to around 3500 feet 
Sunday night. 


The combination of heavy rain and high snow levels is expected to 
drive the Skokomish River in Mason County to slightly above flood 
stage Sunday night. A Flood Watch is in effect to cover this for now. 


Other rivers flowing off the Olympics and rivers flowing off the 
Cascades should also see significant rises Sunday into Monday. At 
this time no rivers are expected to reach flood stage but some may 
come within a foot or two of flood stage...especially if more rain 
falls than currently forecast. 


Otherwise......flooding is not expected the next 7 days. Schneider 


&& 


Aviation...flow aloft will remain strong and vary between westerly 
and southwesterly. A frontal system will move over the region 
tonight spreading rain over the area. Strong southeast winds tonight 
will become southwest and ease Sunday. Air mass is moist and stable. 


Conditions are currently mostly VFR but ceilings will lower 
overnight to low end MVFR most areas. Some visibility restrictions 
of 4sm in rain are possible. Not much improvement Sunday or even 
Sunday night with mostly dank weather. 


Ksea...discussion above applies. Southerly winds 4-8 knots will 
increase to 10g15 knots after midnight. Chb 


&& 


Marine...a warm front will approach the coast tonight...increasing 
southerly winds over all waters. Gales are forecast to develop from 
Admiralty Inlet north. The cold front will pass Sunday and moderate 
to strong onshore flow will follow Monday. Another front follows 
Tuesday. Chb 


&& 


Sew watches/warnings/advisories... 
Washington...Winter Weather Advisory north Cascades above 4000 feet this 
evening through Sunday night. 
.Flood Watch Mason County Sunday morning through Monday morning. 
Pz...Gale Warning northern coastal waters...entrances to the 
Strait of Juan Delaware fuca...and Admiralty Inlet. 
.Small Craft Advisory all other waters except central Strait. 


$$ 


Www.Weather.Gov/Seattle 


You can see an illustrated version of the forecast discussion at 
www.Weather.Gov/Seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.Html.