Updated: 8:14 PM PST on February 8, 2016
Clear. Lows in the lower to mid 40s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south late in the afternoon.
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning becoming light.
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 40s. Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Lows around 40.
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower to mid 60s.
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Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Medford or 812 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016 Update...only a few minor changes were made this evening, mainly to adjust temperature trends with the very warm daytime temperatures today. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track. For more information, see the previous discussion below. -Bpn && Aviation...for the 09/00z taf cycle...low level wind shear will be an aviation hazard at all 4 terminals overnight as short term models continue to show 30 to 40 knot winds 1500-2000 feet above ground. LIFR conditions will return to the Umpqua valley and perhaps the Scott, Illinois and western portions of the rogue valleys again overnight into Tuesday morning. The remainder of the area will be VFR. /Fb && Marine...updated 800 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016...a thermal trough along the coast will move north. Winds will turn southerly tonight as a low pressure deepens beyond longitude 130w. A front may move near the coastal waters Wednesday. Models are showing this front weakening as it moves into the waters but there may be a slight increase in south winds and seas. A stronger front will move in Thursday into Friday with the potential for Small Craft Advisory winds and steep seas. Another steep long period swell around 18 seconds is expected to move into the waters Thursday night and Friday. -Bpn/fb && Previous discussion... /issued 214 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016/ Short term...the western region situational awareness table this morning revealed naefs forecast temperatures for this afternoon over southwest Oregon...for this time of year...were to be some of the warmest experienced in the the past 30 years. This has proven accurate as North Bend at 155 PM PST was 79 and had broken its previous record of 69 set in 1963. Also as of at 205 PM PST Medford has reached 76 and has also broken its previous record of 70 set in 1996. To keep this in perspective, medford's all-time high temperature reached in February was 79 in 1992, and that occurred on the 26th. Lastly, as of 155 PM, Klamath Falls was 58, and this ties their previous record of 58 in 1996. Check record event reports after 4 PM for official records. Strong high pressure aloft will continue to shift slightly eastward into Tuesday over the region however the strong easterly offshore flow is easing and shifting southeast as surface low pressure off the coast expands northward and coastal pressure gradients relax. High temperatures over the area are likely to continue well above average into Tuesday and Wednesday despite the high shifting eastward. Upcoming temperatures anomalies don't look nearly as impressive over the area and guidance suggests a nudge downward in highs for the next couple days so a bunch of additional records aren't anticipated, but would not be surprised to see another record or two fall. Overnight and morning fog should occur again in the Umpqua and Illinois valleys, and into some of western Siskiyou County. Low pressure approaches the coast Thursday through Thursday night with some shortwave energy in southwest flow producing a chance for a little light rain over the coastal waters and Coos, Curry, and western Douglas counties by daybreak Friday. Stavish Long term...Friday through Monday night...overall, the ridge that is bringing the unseasonably mild (warm) weather to much of the region early this week will shift to the east late this week into the weekend. This will allow Pacific systems to reach the Pacific northwest resulting in increasing chances for rain and a modest cooling trend. Flat ridging arrives over the weekend into early next week, but Pacific disturbances still may ride over the top at times. The extended period begins with a ridge axis extending from the Desert Southwest northward through the intermountain west. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific northwest coast. There remains some uncertainty in the timing and strength of the trough as it moves into and through the northwest Friday into Saturday. The 12z GFS is slower than both the 12z ecwmf/Canadian Gem models. For Friday, have blended solutions here to Iron out some of the details, with chance to likely probability of precipitation from the Cascades west, highest along the coast. Have kept it mostly dry over the east side and in Modoc County. Snow levels will be high, mostly above 6000 feet. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation continue Friday night into Saturday as the upper trough swings through...again highest along and west of the Cascades. Snow levels should drop a bit down to 4000 to 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Confidence lessens over the weekend. The ridge will try to rebuild Saturday night through Sunday night, but model consensus indicates it will remain relatively flat with a warm front passing to the north. Model spread is significant enough to preclude large changes to the forecast. The 12z GFS builds the ridge fairly robustly, while the European model (ecmwf)/Canadian Gem remain flat enough that a Pacific disturbance can still bring some rain, mainly west of the Cascades and north of the Umpqua Divide. Continuity leaned more toward the wetter solution and have left this mostly as is. By Monday and Monday night, models show a break between systems, so have kept the forecast dry then. Spilde && Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... or...none. California...none. Pacific coastal waters...none. $$ Bpn/mts/MS/fjb